LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY May 23, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. LDP-M-17. Subcriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS- NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #LDP-M, $28/year. A consolidated subscription to all of the livestock, dairy, and poultry reports (34 issues/year) is also available as stock #LDP-A, $66/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Per capita meat supplies could grow another 5 pounds in 1996, due largely to higher beef and poultry production. The larger supplies will pressure red meat and poultry prices downward. Growth in the general economy is expected to moderate while inflationary pressures will rise slightly. Unchanged to lower livestock prices and expected higher feed grain prices will reduce producers' returns. Domestic corn production this year is projected to decline 15 percent and 1995/96 ending stocks could be the second lowest since 1975/76. Season-average prices are projected at $2.30-$2.70 per bushel, compared with $2.20-$2.30 in 1994/95. Red meat and poultry exports are expected to rise 5-6 percent in 1996, tapering off from double-digit increases in recent years. Imports will remain about unchanged from 1995 as lower domestic prices make our markets less attractive. Large Beef Supplies Search for Demand Beef production has been increasing for several years, but the full price impact from expanding cattle inventories is now beginning to be felt. Beef production will rise about 2 percent this year and an additional 3-4 percent in 1996. Commercial production next year will eclipse the record set in 1976 when a major herd liquidation was underway. This time around, record production will come from a cow herd that is 22 percent smaller. Per capita beef consumption will only reach levels of the late 1980's, however, due to an expanding population and larger exports. Beef supplies will remain large through early fall, but probably not much larger than during recent weeks when weekly federally inspected (FI) cattle slaughter exceeded 700,000 head. Fortunately, the large supplies and declining retail prices are occurring in conjunction with the major grilling and holiday season from early May through early July. Higher slaughter in recent weeks should take some pressure off summer quarter cattle marketings and prices. Feedlot marketings should be current going into the summer quarter, but slaughter weights will continue to rise as a higher proportion of the slaughter will be steers. Fed cattle and wholesale meat prices already have dropped sharply from a year earlier, while retail prices for Choice beef remain relatively static at $2.84 a pound. Consequently, the farm-retail spread widened 12 cents a pound compared to a year ago to $1.44 in April, the widest since last June. Although live animal and wholesale prices may rise modestly through mid-June, fed cattle prices are expected to average in the low- to-mid-$60's until late summer. Retail prices likely will decline through early fall. Broiler Production Increasing Broiler production growth is expected to moderate in 1996. Slightly lower net returns during 1995 and expectations of higher feed costs during 1996 should hold production increases to about 6 percent. This is near the average increase for the last 10 years, but below 1994 and 1995. Supply increases will continue to pressure wholesale and retail prices. April production was about unchanged from last year, but with 1 less slaughter day this year, supplies actually grew about 5 percent. Production in May is expected to increase 5-6 percent on a daily basis. Broiler weights remain near last year, possibly due to an increased incidence of respiratory disease. Respiratory problems also may have affected the broiler hatching egg flock. Last fall, the flock was 13 percent larger than a year earlier. By April, however, the flock was only 4 percent larger. Large broiler supplies will hold wholesale prices about 3 cents per pound lower in 1995 than in 1994, and about 2 cents lower in 1996 than 1995. Retail prices are expected to fall slightly less as retail margins widen. Continued export growth to Russia and Hong Kong is expected to push 1996 shipments to 3.7 billion pounds. U.S. broiler exports are forecast to reach 3.4 billion pounds this year, about 20 percent higher than in 1994. Russia and Hong Kong will account for 60 to 65 percent of U.S. exports. Turkey Consumption To Increase Per capita turkey consumption will increase about half a pound this year, and another 1-pound increase appears likely for 1996. These are the largest increases since the late 1980's. A continuation of stronger returns in early 1995 is expected to boost production 5-6 percent in 1996. Larger production and much slower export growth are contributing to lower prices. For 1995, wholesale prices are expected to decline about 3 cents per pound from 1994, while retail prices may fall about 2 cents, leading to a wider wholesale-retail spread. For 1996, wholesale and retail prices are projected to fall an additional 2 cents per pound. Returns in the second half of 1995 are expected to drop below 1994 as feed costs increase, but returns for the year should remain above breakeven and nearly unchanged from 1994. Feed costs in 1996 are expected to pressure net returns. U.S. turkey exports are forecast to reach 258 million pounds in 1996. Improvement in the Mexican economy should aid in rebuilding exports, and lower prices will make turkey an attractively priced protein import for Asian countries such as Korea, Hong Kong, and Japan. Egg Production Increasing Slowly Low egg-type hatch early in 1995 and increased fowl slaughter relative to second-half 1994 will keep egg production during the second half of 1995 about unchanged from a year ago. Production is expected to increase 1 percent for 1995. Net returns will be nearly unchanged from 1994, which should encourage continued slow production increases into 1996. Table egg production is expected to increase 1-2 percent in 1996, while hatching egg production will increase 4-5 percent. Continued growth in the broiler sector is driving the increase in hatching egg production. Wholesale egg prices are expected to fall 2 cents from a year earlier in 1995, and decline another 1 cent per dozen in 1996. Retail prices will be about 1 cent lower in 1995, allowing for a wider retail margin. In 1996, retail prices are expected to parallel wholesale prices and decline about 1 cent per dozen. Pork Prices To Strengthen From Lower Supplies Wholesale pork cutout values gained $2 per cwt over the past month as prices for several cuts increased with seasonally stronger retail demand and lower volumes. Further gains are expected during the next 6 weeks as slaughter supplies decline further. Weekly slaughter during May came in slightly above expectations, near 1.8 million head. Pork production this summer is forecast near 4.4 billion pounds, 2 percent above last year. The increase should not be large enough to keep prices from gaining seasonally to the low $40's per cwt. Fourth-quarter production will rise 6 percent from the summer quarter, but show year-over-year declines that should keep prices trading in the upper $30's. This trading range is well above year-earlier prices, but still below breakeven for many higher cost producers. Small to negative returns since last fall have reduced breeding herds and will lead to smaller pork supplies beginning in fourth- quarter 1995. Year to date sow slaughter is up about 2 percent from 1994, and gilt retention likely will be unchanged to lower for the remainder of the year. Lower production also is forecast for the first half of 1996. Declines will be modest, however, likely averaging 1-2 percent. Live hog prices should approach breakeven levels in the upper $30's to low $40's, and this factor along with continued productivity gains in pigs saved per litter is expected to hold 1996 production near this year. Larger pork exports and lower imports are forecast for 1996. Continued low wholesale prices will fuel both trends, but this also will mean only marginally improved net returns to producers. However, higher feed costs could limit even modest gains received from stronger cash prices. Lamb Prices Continue Strong Lamb prices remain nearly immune to the consequences of record large total meat supplies and weaker prices across the rest of the meat complex. Prices continue to hold up due to seasonally lower slaughter, but price declines still are likely as retail demand weakens into the summer quarter. Lamb and mutton production will continue downward in 1996, falling as much as 8 percent compared with a 6-percent decline this year. Tighter supplies will support stronger lamb prices, even as larger competing meat supplies lower their relative prices. This trend suggests that lamb is becoming a specialty product with a more inelastic demand. Steady Milk Prices for 1996 Farm milk prices in 1996 are projected to be about unchanged from 1995. Commercial use of skim solids is expected to absorb the 1-2 percent expansion in milk output. However, commercial use of milkfat could grow only slightly or expand briskly depending on international butter prices. Milk cow numbers are projected to decline only fractionally in 1996 as herd expansions largely offset exiting herds. In addition, cow numbers probably will be supported by large replacement heifer numbers and low cull cow prices. Growth in milk per cow is expected to slow next year. Fewer cows are projected to be injected with bovine somatotropin (bST) for the first time after 2 years of rapid adoption. Milk-feed price ratios are expected to remain moderately unfavorable, making farmers conservative about increasing concentrate feeding. Surplus skim solids are projected to be less than 4 percent of production next year, about the same as 1995. Milkfat surpluses should remain smaller than for skim solids. Wholesale dairy product prices have been fairly steady since early April at levels (except for butter) below a year earlier. Heavy milk production has boosted supplies of manufactured products, but any extra product has been held with confidence because of strong sales. Seasonal price increases this summer may be delayed because of declining shipments of nonfat dry milk under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. For all of 1995, farm milk prices are projected to decline 4 to 6 percent. PRODUCTION INDICATORS Apr-94 Feb-95 Mar-95 Apr-95 Cattle: On feed - 7 States 8,977 8,866 8,926 8,992 Net placements 1,334 1,541 1,695 1,355 Marketings 1,610 1,481 1,629 1,557 Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 528,926 536,954 549,742 559,251 Chicks hatched (000)/2 627,051 598,962 677,334 655,000 Hatching egg layers/1 47,411 49,645 49,226 49,376 Pullets placed (000) 6,101 5,481 6,161 NA Hvy-type hen slaughter 4,416 4,995 5,193 5,500 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 36,594 35,095 35,158 36,814 Poults placed (000) 28,351 25,943 28,514 26,760 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.) / 431 405 457 445 Table egg layers, (000)/1 240,736 244,281 244,161 242,133 Table eggs/100 layers/1 73.0 70.0 71.9 73.5 Chicks hatched (000) 35,668 31,693 34,806 37,000 Lt.-type hen slaughter 10,977 8,290 9,238 9,000 ESTIMATED RETURNS May-94 Mar-95 Apr-95 May-95 /* Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 73.17 67.98 68.78 66.56 Selling price 68.12 70.64 67.54 63.50 Net margin -5.05 2.66 -1.24 -3.06 N. Central hog farrow to fini Breakeven price /3 40.13 37.57 38.00 37.71 Selling price 42.87 38.13 36.04 36.75 Net margin 2.74 0.56 -1.96 -0.96 Broiler Wholesale cost 50.64 47.67 47.66 48.11 Wholesale price 61.39 52.32 51.51 53.00 Net margin 10.75 4.65 3.85 4.89 Turkey Wholesale cost 65.40 59.16 59.53 59.47 Wholesale price 63.47 59.47 59.62 60.50 Net margin -1.93 0.31 0.09 1.03 Egg Wholesale cost 68.33 64.90 65.62 66.13 Wholesale price 63.25 72.64 72.92 62.00 Net margin -5.08 7.74 7.30 -4.13 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* estimate LIVESTOCK PRICES May-94 Mar-95 Apr-95 May-95 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 68.12 70.64 67.54 63.95 Nebraska Direct 68.09 70.00 66.63 63.85 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 47.38 41.35 40.56 40.20 Utility boning 46.67 39.32 38.47 36.70 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 92.80 84.88 83.38 81.00 600-650 lb. 85.15 76.31 76.69 72.50 750-800 lb. 76.08 68.84 65.41 63.90 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 87.33 77.94 74.25 70.00 700-750 lb. 73.30 65.44 62.66 61.00 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 42.24 37.86 35.77 36.20 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 42.87 38.13 36.04 36.75 Sows 6 Markets 37.21 33.02 31.08 29.75 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) 40.45 39.60 39.00 29.75 Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 60.94 73.75 68.58 76.50 Ewes, Good 39.00 31.25 35.31 30.00 Feeder lambs, Choice 64.70 80.06 78.81 75.00 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES May-94 Mar-95 Apr-95 May-95 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 2.58 2.36 2.41 2.48 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 3.65 3.87 3.79 4.05 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 193.07 156.90 160.16 156.00 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 106.00 94.20 95.20 NA Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 73.40 63.90 66.30 NA U.S. Pasture index 84.00 NA NA NA /* Estimates WHOLESALE PRICES May-94 Mar-95 Apr-95 May-95 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 108.85 107.87 103.03 103.75 Choice 1-3 700-850# 107.79 107.35 103.25 104.05 Select 1-3 700-850# 103.44 105.40 99.76 94.15 Cutter Cow 90.51 74.94 72.91 69.45 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 118.74 101.37 94.46 86.45 Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 114.75 100.45 94.63 86.25 Hide & offal value 7.82 9.42 9.36 9.16 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 173.97 165.35 164.19 161.00 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 58.45 54.55 51.64 52.60 Loins, 14-18 lb. 103.99 95.30 93.33 92.50 Bellies, 12-14 lb. 41.40 36.30 33.83 31.00 Hams, 17-20 lb. 54.44 51.60 44.00 42.40 Trimmings, 72% fresh 40.85 35.41 31.51 30.25 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. down, Choice 140.25 156.25 156.25 165.00 55-65 lb., Choice 130.25 154.25 154.25 165.00 Broilers 12 City Avg. 61.39 52.32 51.51 53.00 Georgia dock 58.12 51.20 50.61 51.50 Northeast Breast, boneless 194.59 155.64 160.24 180.00 Breast, Ribs on 96.18 78.22 79.68 88.00 Legs, whole 51.48 50.77 50.60 50.00 Leg quarters 36.62 32.88 32.66 32.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 65.12 60.09 60.35 62.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 63.14 60.04 60.05 60.50 Drumsticks 32.00 28.69 25.18 20.00 Wings, full cut 32.99 32.52 26.99 24.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 63.25 72.64 72.92 62.00 New York 61.88 66.20 66.65 60.00 /* Estimate MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - May-94 May-95 Mar-95 Apr-95 May-95 /* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 9,631 9,954 2,060 1,849 2,228 Veal 115 125 27 22 25 Pork 7,009 7,425 1,634 1,405 1,532 Lamb 141 127 30 28 21 Total red meat 16,896 17,631 3,751 3,304 3,806 Broilers 9,577 10,235 2,185 1,900 2,200 Other chicken 214 215 44 42 45 Turkeys 1,887 2,019 434 355 470 Total poultry 11,678 12,469 2,663 2,297 2,715 Total meat & poultry 28,574 30,100 6,414 5,601 6,521 Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 13,707 14,224 2,950 2,650 3,174 Steers 7,162 7,336 1,498 1,401 1,717 Heifers 3,868 4,113 865 765 905 Beef Cows 1,174 1,266 262 224 263 Dairy Cows 1,244 1,236 266 210 229 Bulls and stags 259 273 59 50 60 Calves 499 558 121 98 110 Sheep 2,198 2,008 468 440 338 Hogs 38,085 39,946 8,808 7,547 8,170 Barrows & gilts 36,209 38,027 8,391 7,208 7,777 Sows 1,497 1,525 327 269 310 Broilers 2,834,373 3,025,318 647,378 560,000 650,000 Turkeys 104,160 107,937 23,214 19,200 25,000 May-94 Feb-95 Mar-95 Apr-95 May-95 /* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 706 707 705 704 707 Calves 243 226 227 230 231 Sheep 65 64 65 64 63 Hogs 186 186 186 187 187 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 399.5 420.3 407.7 385.4 386.8 Pork 429.7 389.6 395.1 416.8 424.1 Bellies 72.2 62.8 64.2 79.0 78.5 Hams 66.6 40.1 52.4 45.2 56.7 Total chicken 410.4 456.3 465.2 492.9 520.3 Turkey 399.1 317.6 367.5 444.4 469.6 Frozen eggs 16.3 19.5 18.3 18.5 17.5 /* Estimates RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Apr-94 Feb-95 Mar-95 Apr-95 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 287.1 284.3 284.7 283.7 Beef - All Fresh 267.3 263.7 266.5 259.5 Ground Beef 148.2 142.6 139.2 136.5 Rib roast 469.3 499.1 495.2 493.7 T-bone steak 586.0 583.8 593.8 586.6 Pork 198.7 189.9 193.5 190.6 Bacon 206.3 193.0 191.0 189.0 Chops 324.9 314.4 313.4 318.4 Picnic 111.5 110.2 108.0 112.4 Chicken - Composite 145.8 141.2 145.1 143.7 Whole, fresh 89.9 89.3 91.7 91.1 Breast - bone in 209.8 194.3 202.8 199.4 Leg quarter 111.8 114.6 115.3 115.2 Turkey; whole frozen 96.0 99.1 102.2 100.7 Eggs, Grade A, Large 86.1 86.3 87.5 83.3 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 147.4 150.9 151.4 151.9 All food 143.4 147.4 147.4 148.4 All meat 136.0 134.9 135.5 134.9 Beef & veal 137.1 136.6 136.9 136.2 Pork 133.5 131.8 132.9 131.1 Poultry 140.9 141.4 143.3 142.3 Dairy Products 131.8 132.1 132.2 132.1 Fluid milk & cream 132.6 131.9 131.8 131.9 Manufactured products 131.6 132.9 133.1 132.8 Price Spreads Cents/lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 16.0 19.1 19.4 19.1 Wholesale to retail 110.3 113.9 119.0 125.2 Farmers share (%) 56.0 53.0 51.0 49.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 35.7 31.1 31.7 33.4 Wholesale to retail 95.4 96.9 102.1 100.6 Farmers share (%) 34.0 33.0 31.0 30.0 Poultry and eggs Retail to consumer Broilers 24.9 29.6 31.4 31.6 Turkey 25.1 32.0 33.7 32.1 Eggs 19.2 16.5 16.9 12.4 U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Feb-95 Mar-95 Jan - Jan - Mar-94 Mar-95 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 53,614 54,269 262,126 183,719 New Zealand 58,648 54,790 161,686 170,316 Canada 32,320 36,246 116,480 105,479 Brazil 2,861 4,405 41,440 10,498 Argentina 13,111 16,433 37,433 43,437 Central America 17,226 19,061 56,548 52,502 Other 1,311 2,113 5,725 6,069 Total 179,092 187,317 681,437 572,019 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 74,125 77,085 192,214 205,701 Canada 21,016 22,366 58,807 66,207 Mexico 7,510 4,849 44,785 19,181 Korea, Rep. 15,063 16,813 44,317 50,224 Caribbean 1,021 1,264 2,483 3,356 Other 7,171 8,998 16,223 22,838 Total 125,906 131,377 358,830 367,506 Cattle Imports Mexico 190,551 270,141 365,320 606,625 Canada 82,624 106,453 204,146 262,068 Over 700 lbs. 77,750 99,194 187,221 245,598 500-700 lbs. 514 728 4,314 1,778 Total 273,175 376,594 569,466 868,694 Cattle Exports Mexico 961 747 30,184 3,619 Canada 4,612 9,186 19,169 22,022 Total 5,887 10,147 51,803 26,597 Lamb Imports Australia 1,376 1,896 6,132 4,984 New Zealand 1,277 2,512 2,893 4,966 Total 2,654 4,414 9,028 10,010 Mutton Imports 1,531 3,360 3,775 6,156 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Customs Service YTD imports under W 4/16/94 4/15/95 % Chg Canada 110,556 95,119 -14.0% TRQ Countries 385,146 303,151 -21.3% Australia 214,041 139,758 -34.7% New Zealand 120,452 123,017 2.1% ----------------------------------------------------------------- Feb-95 Mar-95 Jan - Jan - Mar-94 Mar-95 Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lb. Canada 37,816 41,636 113,504 117,081 Denmark 12,708 14,298 68,500 38,818 Poland 1,321 2,050 3,618 3,854 Hungary 812 520 6,379 2,333 Netherlands 910 829 4,500 2,504 Other 2,650 3,084 8,641 8,444 Total 56,217 62,416 205,142 173,034 Pork Exports Japan 20,399 27,029 48,951 66,276 Canada 3,175 3,657 6,034 10,913 Mexico 6,335 4,306 33,503 17,393 Caribbean 713 712 1,558 1,954 Other 42,442 24,850 14,333 90,449 Total 73,066 60,554 104,380 186,984 Hog Imports Head Canada 92,869 119,537 198,832 315,874 Under 110 lb 44,167 55,209 84,630 142,454 Total 93,122 119,547 199,272 316,360 Hog Exports Total 223 1,281 15,862 2,915 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 16,891 20,199 43,162 53,828 Mexico 14,541 17,102 52,840 46,387 Hong Kong 80,955 84,464 140,255 227,881 Singapore 3,927 4,597 16,475 11,816 Canada 4,223 4,586 15,723 13,201 Former USSR 97,550 124,043 154,710 323,197 Total 271,151 340,977 571,434 873,147 Turkey Exports Mexico 13,658 8,516 34,034 28,870 S. Korea 2,979 2,542 2,704 6,639 Hong Kong 1,418 1,391 1,498 3,307 Total 21,945 17,242 52,486 53,135 Shell thousand dz. Egg Exports 7,307 9,545 21,069 23,873 MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS Apr-94 Feb-95 Mar-95 Apr-95 Milk production Production - 21 States, Mil. lb 11,282 10,441 11,698 11,525 Milk cow number - 21 States, Thou 8,080 8,088 8,103 8,099 Milk per cow - 21 States, Lb 1,396 1,291 1,444 1,423 Production - U.S., Mil. lb 13,118 12,176 13,641 13,400 Milk prices: Dol./cwt All milk 13.40 12.60 12.70 12.50 Milk for fluid use 13.50 12.60 12.70 12.50 Manuf. grade milk 12.50 11.60 11.70 11.30 Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 12.99 11.79 11.89 11.16 Wholesale prices: cents/lb Grade A butter 65.5 65.5 66.5 66.5 Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 143.3 130.4 131.1 122.8 Barrels 140.2 126.9 127.5 Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 110.8 107.1 107.8 107.6 International prices: $/metric ton Butter 1,344 1,850 2,033 2,000 Nonfat dry milk 1,507 1,957 2,139 2,129 Beginning stocks: Mil. lb Commercial butter 18.5 25.5 25.8 23.3 Commercial American cheese 318.0 325.3 328.9 328.5 Other cheese 154.2 131.5 127.0 130.9 Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 64.2 114.8 94.0 97.5 All commercial (mf. basis) 4,722 4,780 4,806 4,806 All commercial (ss. basis) 5,651 6,086 5,862 5,966 All Government (mf. basis) 5,305 1,458 1,405 1,158 All Government (ss. basis) 81 320 341 339 USDA net removals: Mil. lb Butter 15.5 3.1 12.4 11.1 Cheese 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 Nonfat dry milk 37.7 48.6 49.1 47.2 All products (mf basis 2/) 360.9 121.2 319.3 281.5 All products (ss basis 2/) 454.4 611.0 612.6 579.5 Mar-94 Jan-95 Feb-95 Mar-95 Dairy product output: Mil. lb Butter 118.0 132.0 120.3 125.7 American cheese 249.7 262.0 240.2 263.2 Other-than-American cheese 342.1 303.6 288.2 330.7 Frozen products 1/, Mil. gal. 114.0 81.6 85.5 113.5 All products (mf basis 2/) 8250.1 8015.8 7531.9 8626.4 Nonfat dry milk 102.4 106.7 98.3 110.4 Commercial disappearance: Mil. l Butter 107.7 96.4 116.9 NA American cheese 260.7 246.2 242.8 NA Other-than-American cheese 361.3 320.0 313.9 NA Nonfat dry milk 100.0 64.5 70.6 NA All products (mf. basis) 13036.0 12118.0 12214.0 NA Imports (mf basis 2/) 253.0 220.0 320.0 NA 1/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, & sherbert 2/ Milk equivalent Annual Forecasts 1993 1994 1995 1996 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 5,135 5,344 5,517 5,645 CPI-U, Annual % Change 3.0 2.7 3.4 3.5 Unemployment rate, % 6.8 6.1 5.4 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 3.0 4.3 6.2 6.1 10-Year Bond,% 5.9 7.1 7.7 7.5 Production, million lb. Beef 22,942 24,278 24,802 25,750 Pork 17,030 17,658 17,988 18,100 Broilers 22,178 23,847 25,410 27,000 Turkeys 4,848 4,992 5,299 5,600 Total Red Meat & Poultry 68,107 71,796 74,512 77,422 Eggs, mil doz. 5,156 5,265 5,314 5,380 Milk 150,582 153,626 158,371 161,000 Commercial use (mf basis) 144,976 150,196 157,200 57,300 Net removals (mf basis) 6,654 4,812 3,236 5,100 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 65.1 67.5 68.5 70.0 Pork 52.3 53.1 53.8 53.4 Broilers 68.4 69.8 72.8 76.4 Turkeys 17.8 18.0 18.6 20.0 Total Red Meat & Poultry 207.6 212.1 217.4 223.6 Eggs, number 236.2 238.6 239.0 240.3 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 76.36 68.84 66-69 64-69 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt. 86.46 77.72 66-69 62-67 Brk Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 47.52 42.50 37-38 35-37 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cwt 46.10 40.06 38-39 37-41 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 55.20 55.69 52-54 48-53 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 62.60 65.65 61-64 58-63 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 72.50 67.25 64-67 62-67 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 12.80 13.03 12.1-12.6 11.9-12.8 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 11.80 12.01 11.1-11.6 10.8-11.8 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 1,275 1,611 1,680 1,715 Beef & veal imports 2,401 2,371 2,430 2,480 Pork exports 435 531 540 545 Pork imports 740 743 730 685 Broiler exports 1,966 2,875 3,435 3,700 Turkey exports 212 245 250 258 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1994 Quarterly 1994/95 Forecasts QI'94 QII'94 QIII'94 QIV'94 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,261 5,314 5,367 5,434 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.1 2.8 3.5 2.4 Unemployment rate, % 6.6 6.2 6.0 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 3.3 4.0 4.5 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 6.1 7.1 7.3 7.8 Production, million lb. Beef 5,745 6,042 6,377 6,114 Pork 4,181 4,239 4,326 4,912 Broilers 5,667 5,984 6,167 6,029 Turkeys 1,091 1,254 1,337 1,310 Total Meat 16,964 17,770 18,433 18,629 Eggs, mil doz. 1,289 1,293 1,319 1,364 Milk (mf basis) 37,560 39,916 38,217 37,933 Commercial use 35,235 37,652 39,483 37,826 Net removals 2,360 1,855 (242) 839 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.4 17.0 17.5 16.6 Pork 12.5 12.9 13.2 14.5 Broilers 17.1 17.6 18.2 16.9 Turkeys 3.6 3.8 4.4 6.2 Total Meat 50.5 52.3 54.2 55.1 Eggs, number 58.8 58.6 59.6 61.6 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 73.10 68.79 65.83 67.63 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 82.14 77.63 76.37 74.74 Brk Cows,S. Falls 44.40 46.16 42.77 36.68 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 45.80 42.90 40.50 31.03 Broiler,12 City 55.05 60.00 55.90 51.80 Turkeys, Eastern 60.10 63.10 66.90 72.50 Eggs, New York 71.50 63.30 67.00 67.20 Milk, all at plant 13.57 13.03 12.50 13.03 Milk, M-W 12.53 11.92 11.73 11.84 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 359 391 416 445 Beef/veal imports 682 603 587 499 Pork exports 104 115 131 181 Pork imports 205 206 168 164 Broiler exports 571 698 694 912 Turkey exports 52 60 54 79 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1994 QI'95 QII'95 QIII'95 QIV'95 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,467 5,503 5,534 5,563 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 Unemployment rate, % 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 3-Month T Bill,% 5.9 6.3 6.3 6.2 10-Year Bond,% 7.7 7.8 7.6 7.5 Production, million lb. Beef 5,877 6,150 6,550 6,225 Pork 4,488 4,375 4,425 4,700 Broilers 6,135 6,375 6,500 6,400 Turkeys 1,194 1,330 1,395 1,380 Total Meat 17,971 18,476 19,103 18,962 Eggs, mil doz. 1,314 1,315 1,320 1,365 Milk (mf basis) 38,971 41,300 39,200 38,900 Commercial use 37,700 39,600 40,000 39,900 Net removals 1,036 1,000 300 900 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.5 17.2 18.0 16.8 Pork 13.2 13.2 13.4 14.0 Broilers 17.7 18.4 18.7 18.0 Turkeys 3.6 4.0 4.6 6.4 Total Meat 51.9 53.8 55.6 56.1 Eggs, number 59.3 59.1 59.2 61.4 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 71.51 66-68 62-66 64-70 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 72.62 65-67 64-68 64-70 Brk Cows,S. Falls 39.58 37-39 36-38 35-37 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 38.56 37-39 39-41 36-40 Broiler,12 City 51.70 52-54 52-56 50-54 Turkeys, Eastern 59.80 60-62 61-65 64-70 Eggs, New York 65.20 61-63 64-68 66-72 Milk, all at plant 12.60 11.9-12.2 11.6-12.2 12.3-13.3 Milk, M-W 11.68 10.7-11.0 10.8-11.4 11.4-12.4 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 365 420 445 450 Beef/veal imports 600 660 625 545 Pork exports 165 125 115 135 Pork imports 180 190 180 180 Broiler exports 805 825 855 950 Turkey exports 55 59 65 71 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, February 1995 END-END-END