Cr Pr 2-2 (7-00) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released July 12, 2000, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Wheat Production Down 3 Percent from 1999 Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.59 billion bushels. This is down 2 percent from last month and down 7 percent from 1999. The U.S. yield is forecast at 44.9 bushels per acre, down 1.8 bushels from last month. Hard Red Winter, at 887 million bushels, is down 6 percent from a month ago. White Winter is up for the second consecutive month and now totals 235 million bushels. Soft Red Winter is up 4 percent from the last forecast, at 467 million bushels. Durum wheat production is forecast at 128 million bushels, up 29 percent from 1999. The U.S. yield is forecast at 32.2 bushels per acre, 4.4 bushels more than last year. Other Spring wheat production is forecast at 526 million bushels, up 5 percent from 1999. The U.S. yield is forecast at 34.9 bushels per acre, 0.8 bushels higher than last year. Of this total, 470 million is Hard Red Spring wheat, up 5 percent from last season. All oranges production forecast for 1999-00 is 13.0 million tons, up less than 1 percent from last month's forecast and 33 percent above last season's final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast is 231 million boxes (10.4 million tons), up less than 1 percent from the June forecast. If realized, it will be the second largest utilized crop and 24 percent higher than the 186 million boxes (8.37 million tons) utilized last season. Florida's early and midseason variety forecast is final at 134 million boxes (6.03 million tons), 20 percent higher than last season. Their Valencia forecast, at 97.0 million boxes (4.37 million tons), is 1 percent above last month's forecast and 31 percent higher than last season's final utilization. The Valencia harvest is wrapping up later than normal. Crews are trying to finish harvest as soon as possible. Several plants are receiving fruit for processing and limited amounts of fruit are being packed for fresh use. California orange production is forecast at 67.0 million boxes (2.51 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast. If realized, it will be 86 percent larger than last season's freeze-damaged crop. Harvest of the Navel orange crop was virtually complete by late June, but a few late varieties are still available for harvest. The Valencia harvest is active in all citrus growing areas. Approximately 10 percent has been harvested. Arizona's orange production is increased to 1.10 million boxes (42,000 tons), 4 percent lower than last season's utilization. The Texas forecast of 1.70 million boxes (73,000 tons) is carried forward from the previous forecast. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast remains unchanged at 1.55 gallons of 42.0 degree Brix concentrate per box. The early and midseason portion is final at 1.48 gallons per box as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association. The late season (Valencia) orange yield forecast continues at 1.67 gallons per box. This will be the lowest yield for Valencia oranges since the 1995-96 season. Last season's yield was a record high 1.75 gallons per box. This report was approved on July 12, 2000. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Shirley R. Watkins Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Frederic A. Vogel Contents Page Almonds. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Apricots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Barley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Citrus Fruits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Grapes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Oats . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Papayas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Peaches. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Potatoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Reliability of Production Data in this Report. . . . . . . . . . 31 Tobacco. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Wheat, Durum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Wheat, Head Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 Wheat, by Class. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Wheat, Other Spring. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Wheat, Winter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Oats: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1998-99 and Forecasted July 1, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres --- Bushels --- ------ 1,000 Bushels ------ : AL 1/ : 20 44.0 816 880 AR 1/ : 11 91.0 720 1,001 CA : 30 30 85.0 75.0 2,250 2,550 2,250 ID : 25 20 68.0 65.0 2,250 1,700 1,300 IL : 60 60 71.0 73.0 3,920 4,260 4,380 IA : 175 170 65.0 68.0 10,915 11,375 11,560 KS : 70 50 47.0 44.0 2,700 3,290 2,200 MD 1/ : 5 51.0 350 255 MI : 75 70 65.0 66.0 4,800 4,875 4,620 MN : 300 330 59.0 65.0 19,530 17,700 21,450 MT : 70 65 46.0 40.0 3,240 3,220 2,600 NE : 75 70 62.0 45.0 5,320 4,650 3,150 NY : 70 60 68.0 60.0 6,510 4,760 3,600 ND : 330 350 51.0 62.0 25,200 16,830 21,700 OH : 100 80 70.0 64.0 6,500 7,000 5,120 OR : 20 20 100.0 105.0 3,850 2,000 2,100 PA : 145 145 55.0 55.0 8,480 7,975 7,975 SD : 200 240 64.0 60.0 20,100 12,800 14,400 TX : 110 150 44.0 43.0 6,890 4,840 6,450 WV 1/ : 2 48.0 200 96 WI : 300 280 62.0 68.0 18,300 18,600 19,040 : Oth Sts 2/: 260 282 59.9 62.0 13,140 15,561 17,485 : US : 2,453 2,472 59.6 61.2 165,981 146,218 151,380 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates discontinued in 2000. 2/ Other States include CO, GA, IN, ME, MO, NC, OK, SC, UT, WA, and WY. Barley: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1998-99 and Forecasted July 1, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :---------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres --- Bushels --- ------ 1,000 Bushels ------ : AZ : 62 36 114.0 110.0 6,160 7,068 3,960 CA : 125 95 64.0 65.0 7,500 8,000 6,175 CO : 86 95 105.0 100.0 9,430 9,030 9,500 DE : 26 27 84.0 81.0 1,800 2,184 2,187 ID : 690 730 78.0 76.0 59,280 53,820 55,480 MD : 50 50 80.0 84.0 3,456 4,000 4,200 MN : 180 250 47.0 56.0 22,825 8,460 14,000 MT : 1,150 1,050 50.0 42.0 57,600 57,500 44,100 ND : 1,240 1,680 48.0 52.0 106,150 59,520 87,360 OK 1/ : 3 39.0 235 117 OR : 135 140 51.0 55.0 8,060 6,885 7,700 PA : 70 70 71.0 70.0 5,025 4,970 4,900 SC 1/ : 2 60.0 141 120 SD : 74 105 48.0 51.0 4,560 3,552 5,355 TX 1/ : 10 35.0 215 350 UT : 83 85 82.0 78.0 7,055 6,806 6,630 VA : 60 65 82.0 88.0 4,270 4,920 5,720 WA : 490 490 59.0 65.0 33,800 28,910 31,850 WY : 85 100 86.0 82.0 7,140 7,310 8,200 : Oth : Sts 2/3/: 137 167 60.8 59.6 7,423 8,331 9,958 : US : 4,758 5,235 59.2 58.7 352,125 281,853 307,275 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates discontinued in 2000. 2/ For 1998 and 1999, Other States include KS, KY, MI, NE, NV, NJ, NC, and WI. 3/ For 2000, Other States include KS, KY, ME, MI, NE, NV, NJ, NY, NC, OH, and WI. Winter Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1999 and Forecasted July 1, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------ State : : : : 2000 : : : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 :-------------------: 1999 : 2000 : : : : Jun 1 : Jul 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ------- Bushels ------- --- 1,000 Bushels --- : AR : 920 1,110 56.0 54.0 56.0 51,520 62,160 CA : 370 365 78.0 82.0 82.0 28,860 29,930 CO : 2,400 2,350 43.0 40.0 30.0 103,200 70,500 DE : 70 63 57.0 63.0 63.0 3,990 3,969 GA : 225 240 43.0 50.0 52.0 9,675 12,480 ID : 710 730 76.0 80.0 82.0 53,960 59,860 IL : 1,010 910 60.0 55.0 56.0 60,600 50,960 IN : 510 510 66.0 62.0 66.0 33,660 33,660 KS : 9,200 9,300 47.0 42.0 39.0 432,400 362,700 KY : 410 420 60.0 55.0 58.0 24,600 24,360 MD : 200 205 60.0 62.0 63.0 12,000 12,915 MI : 600 500 69.0 66.0 67.0 41,400 33,500 MS : 165 195 50.0 50.0 50.0 8,250 9,750 MO : 920 1,000 48.0 51.0 52.0 44,160 52,000 MT : 970 1,350 38.0 35.0 35.0 36,860 47,250 NE : 1,800 1,750 48.0 42.0 38.0 86,400 66,500 NY : 125 140 65.0 59.0 56.0 8,125 7,840 NC : 580 550 49.0 52.0 50.0 28,420 27,500 OH : 1,030 1,110 70.0 72.0 72.0 72,100 79,920 OK : 4,300 4,300 35.0 37.0 34.0 150,500 146,200 OR : 630 730 47.0 60.0 63.0 29,610 45,990 PA : 190 195 54.0 54.0 55.0 10,260 10,725 SC : 220 185 43.0 49.0 49.0 9,460 9,065 SD : 1,260 1,280 47.0 44.0 44.0 59,220 56,320 TN : 340 350 54.0 50.0 52.0 18,360 18,200 TX : 3,400 2,500 36.0 31.0 29.0 122,400 72,500 VA : 240 205 57.0 62.0 60.0 13,680 12,300 WA : 1,670 1,800 58.0 69.0 69.0 96,860 124,200 WY : 185 175 33.0 28.0 25.0 6,105 4,375 : Oth : Sts 1/: 922 883 47.0 44.2 46.1 43,354 40,747 : US : 35,572 35,401 47.8 46.7 44.9 1,699,989 1,588,376 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AL, AZ, FL, IA, LA, MN, NV, NJ, NM, ND, UT, WV, and WI. Individual state level estimates will be published in the " Small Grains 2000 Summary". Durum Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1999 and Forecasted July 1, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------ State : : : : 2000 : : : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 :-------------------: 1999 : 2000 : : : : Jun 1 : Jul 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels ------- 1,000 Bushels : AZ : 75 85 97.0 95.0 95.0 7,275 8,075 CA : 85 97 105.0 95.0 95.0 8,925 9,215 MT : 350 540 27.0 30.0 9,450 16,200 ND : 3,000 3,250 24.0 29.0 72,000 94,250 : Oth : Sts 1/: 59 14 28.3 29.4 1,672 412 : US : 3,569 3,986 27.8 32.2 99,322 128,152 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include MN and SD. Individual state level estimates will be published in the "Small Grains 2000 Summary". Other Spring Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1998-99 and Forecasted July 1, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State:------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- --- Bushels -- ------- 1,000 Bushels ------ : ID : 640 570 79.0 80.0 39,270 50,560 45,600 MN : 1,950 2,100 40.0 40.0 78,720 78,000 84,000 MT : 4,000 3,050 27.0 26.0 108,000 108,000 79,300 ND : 5,600 6,800 30.0 32.0 211,200 168,000 217,600 OR : 153 125 33.0 56.0 4,560 5,049 7,000 SD : 1,710 1,700 35.0 33.0 59,200 59,850 56,100 WA : 620 620 44.0 49.0 20,925 27,280 30,380 : Oth : Sts 1: 95 93 67.3 65.4 6,594 6,393 6,081 : US : 14,768 15,058 34.1 34.9 528,469 503,132 526,061 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include CO, NV, UT, WI, and WY. Individual state level estimates will be published in the "Small Grains 2000 Summary". Wheat: Production by Class, United States, 1998-99 and Forecast July 1, 2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Winter : Spring : :-------------------------------------------------------------: Year : Hard : Soft : : Hard : : : Total : Red : Red : White : Red : White : Durum : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Bushels : 1998 :1,179,452 442,677 258,604 486,370 42,099 138,119 2,547,321 1999 :1,054,996 453,421 191,572 447,931 55,201 99,322 2,302,443 2000 : 886,763 466,921 234,692 470,276 55,785 128,152 2,242,589 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Wheat class estimates are based on varietal acreage survey data available for all wheat producing States. Unless unusual situations dictate, the previous end-of-season class percentages are used throughout the forecast season. Washington Wheat Variety Survey indicates winter wheat is 91 percent White. Winter Wheat: Head Population The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 12 winter wheat estimating states during this year. Randomly selected plots in winter wheat fields are visited monthly from May through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are derived from actual field counts. Winter Wheat: Heads per Square Foot, Selected States, 1996-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and Month : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : CO July : 33.5 41.5 40.3 42.1 48.0 Final : 33.5 41.3 39.3 43.4 : ID July : 45.0 55.2 Final : 45.0 : IL July : 40.2 56.7 51.1 59.7 55.0 Final : 40.2 56.6 51.2 59.6 : KS July : 35.5 48.1 51.3 49.4 46.5 Final : 35.6 48.1 51.3 49.4 : MO July : 42.8 53.8 43.6 47.0 49.9 Final : 43.3 53.8 43.6 47.0 : MT July : 29.3 30.9 37.2 37.0 41.3 Final : 28.7 32.3 38.8 36.3 : NE July : 42.9 48.4 56.4 59.8 57.5 Final : 42.6 47.9 56.7 57.9 : OH July : 43.1 53.6 55.4 57.0 59.5 Final : 43.6 53.5 55.1 57.3 : OK July : 32.5 52.8 39.9 40.2 40.2 Final : 32.5 53.2 40.1 40.1 : OR July : 29.3 29.3 Final : 29.2 : TX July : 32.2 42.9 39.6 40.7 31.4 Final : 32.3 42.3 39.7 40.7 : WA July : 38.1 32.8 38.2 35.1 40.6 Final : 37.9 32.9 37.7 35.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final head counts will be published in the "Small Grains 2000 Summary" in September. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State, and United States, 1999 and Forecasted July 1, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Class and Type :--------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds -- -- 1,000 Pounds -- : Class 1, Flue-cured : Type 11, Old Belts : NC : 55,000 45,000 2,400 2,400 132,000 108,000 VA : 26,000 17,000 2,420 2,350 62,920 39,950 US : 81,000 62,000 2,406 2,386 194,920 147,950 Type 12, Eastern NC : Belt : NC : 119,000 102,000 2,100 2,450 249,900 249,900 Type 13, NC Border & : SC Belt : NC : 26,000 21,000 2,100 2,250 54,600 47,250 SC : 39,000 34,000 2,000 2,250 78,000 76,500 US : 65,000 55,000 2,040 2,250 132,600 123,750 Type 14, GA-FL Belt : FL : 5,800 4,900 2,640 2,500 15,312 12,250 GA : 33,000 30,000 1,940 2,150 64,020 64,500 US : 38,800 34,900 2,045 2,199 79,332 76,750 Total 11-14 : 303,800 253,900 2,162 2,357 656,752 598,350 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Peaches: Total Production by Type, State, and United States, 1998-99 and Forecasted July 1, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total Production State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds : AL : 16.0 20.0 17.0 AR : 12.5 12.0 18.0 CA : All : 1,726.0 1,810.0 1,960.0 Clingstone : 1,045.0 1,059.0 1,120.0 Freestone : 681.0 751.0 840.0 CO : 20.0 3.0 21.0 CT : 2.3 2.2 2.2 GA : 70.0 110.0 105.0 ID : 9.0 8.0 9.0 IL : 15.0 19.0 19.0 IN : 3.8 2.9 2.6 KS 1/ : 0.5 0.8 KY : 1.8 1.8 3.5 LA : 1.4 0.8 1.5 MD : 10.5 8.8 9.0 MA : 1.8 2.0 2.1 MI : 43.0 23.0 43.0 MO : 9.0 10.5 9.5 NJ : 70.0 70.0 70.0 NY : 10.0 14.0 11.7 NC : 25.0 28.0 27.0 OH : 6.8 8.7 7.5 OK : 20.0 15.0 15.0 OR : 8.0 7.0 8.0 PA : 65.0 75.0 50.0 SC : 140.0 160.0 150.0 TN : 3.2 3.1 2.0 TX : 24.0 13.0 21.0 UT : 7.4 6.2 11.0 VA : 14.0 15.0 10.0 WA : 52.0 51.0 55.0 WV : 12.7 12.6 7.5 : : US : 2,400.7 2,513.4 2,668.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates discontinued in 2000. Miscellaneous Fruits and Nuts: Total Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1998-99 and Forecasted July 1, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total Production Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Tons : Grapes Table Type : CA : 643,000 757,000 800,000 Grapes Wine Type : CA : 2,570,000 2,662,000 3,200,000 Grapes Raisin Type 1/ : CA : 2,077,000 2,117,000 2,700,000 All Grapes : CA : 5,290,000 5,536,000 6,700,000 : Apricots : CA : 113,000 85,000 95,000 UT 2/ : 190 400 WA : 5,300 5,500 6,500 US : 118,490 90,500 101,900 : : : 1,000 Pounds : Almonds (Shelled Basis) 3/: CA : 520,000 830,000 640,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Fresh equivalent of dried and not dried. 2/ No significant commercial production in 1999 due to freeze damage. 3/ Utilized production. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : May : 3,760 3,080 2,155 1,660 3,365 4,785 Jun : 3,410 2,575 2,025 1,585 3,215 4,280 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1997-98, 1998-99 and Forecasted July 1, 2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1997-98 : 1998-99 : 1999-00 : 1997-98 : 1998-99 : 1999-00 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ : 350 550 600 13 21 23 CA : 44,000 21,000 40,000 1,650 787 1,500 FL : 140,000 112,000 134,000 6,300 5,040 6,030 TX 4/ : 1,350 1,250 1,500 57 53 64 US : 185,700 134,800 176,100 8,020 5,901 7,617 Valencia : AZ : 650 600 500 25 22 19 CA : 25,000 15,000 27,000 938 563 1,013 FL : 104,000 74,000 97,000 4,680 3,330 4,365 TX 4/ : 175 180 200 7 8 9 US : 129,825 89,780 124,700 5,650 3,923 5,406 All : AZ : 1,000 1,150 1,100 38 43 42 CA : 69,000 36,000 67,000 2,588 1,350 2,513 FL : 244,000 186,000 231,000 10,980 8,370 10,395 TX 4/ : 1,525 1,430 1,700 64 61 73 US : 315,525 224,580 300,800 13,670 9,824 13,023 Temples : FL : 2,250 1,800 1,950 101 81 88 Grapefruit : White Seedless : FL 5/ : 18,300 17,800 20,900 777 757 888 Colored Seedless : FL 6/ : 30,600 28,700 31,800 1,301 1,220 1,352 Other : FL : 650 550 600 28 23 26 All : AZ : 800 750 500 27 25 17 CA : 8,000 7,500 8,000 268 251 268 FL 5/ 6/ : 49,550 47,050 53,300 2,106 2,000 2,266 TX 4/ : 4,800 6,100 5,950 192 244 238 US : 63,150 61,400 67,750 2,593 2,520 2,789 Tangerines : AZ 7/ : 600 950 850 23 36 32 CA 4/ 7/ : 2,400 1,500 2,100 90 56 79 FL : 5,200 4,950 7,000 247 235 333 US : 8,200 7,400 9,950 360 327 444 Lemons : AZ : 2,600 3,450 3,100 99 131 118 CA : 21,000 16,200 20,000 798 616 760 US : 23,600 19,650 23,100 897 747 878 Tangelos : FL : 2,850 2,550 2,200 128 115 99 K-Early Citrus : FL : 40 80 110 2 4 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 5/ Excludes White Seedless economic abandonment of 5,000,000 boxes in 1997-98. 6/ Excludes Colored Seedless economic abandonment of 1,000,000 boxes in 1997-98. 7/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Fall Potatoes: Percent of Acreage Planted by Type of Potatoes, 11 Major States, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Potato Types 1/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Reds : Whites : Russets :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 4 5 4 10 92 85 ID : 8 6 92 94 ME : 4 4 65 59 31 37 MI : 3 3 77 82 20 15 MN : 24 25 14 13 62 62 NY : 100 100 ND : 18 19 39 37 43 44 OR : 2 4 14 13 84 83 PA : 100 100 WA : 3 2 10 15 87 83 WI : 8 10 29 29 63 61 : Total : 5 5 23 23 72 72 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Predominant type shown may include small portion of other type(s) constituting less than 1 percent of State's total. Fall Potatoes: Acres Planted for Certified Seed Potatoes, by State and Total, 1999-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 Crop : 2000 Crop :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Entered for : : Percent : Entered for : Certification : Certified : Certified : Certification -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------- Acres --------- Percent Acres : AK : 200 135 68 100 CA : 1,350 1,278 95 1,000 CO : 14,833 14,094 95 16,831 ID : 43,500 43,424 100 50,500 ME : 16,062 16,541 103 14,636 MI 2/ : 2,600 2,486 96 2,600 MN : 13,400 10,323 77 11,000 MT : 10,200 10,042 98 11,777 NE : 7,250 6,588 91 5,000 NY : 1,100 1,122 102 1,100 ND : 22,677 20,737 91 20,963 OR : 2,594 2,232 86 2,100 PA : 156 245 157 245 SD : 1,400 893 64 958 UT : 60 60 100 62 WA : 2,250 2,309 103 2,300 WI : 10,500 10,509 100 10,500 : Total : 150,132 143,018 95 151,672 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data supplied by State seed certification officials. 2/ 2000 data not available. Estimates carried forward from last year. Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonal : Area Planted :Area Harvested : Yield : Production Group and :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- 1,000 Acres ------- --- Cwt --- --- 1,000 Cwt -- : Winter 1/ : CA : 8.5 9.0 8.5 9.0 260 320 2,210 2,880 FL : 9.6 8.2 9.3 8.0 200 230 1,860 1,840 : Total : 18.1 17.2 17.8 17.0 229 278 4,070 4,720 : Spring 1/ : AL 2/ : 1.7 1.6 175 280 AZ : 10.0 11.0 9.6 11.0 315 290 3,024 3,190 CA : 19.0 18.8 19.0 18.8 400 355 7,600 6,674 FL : 28.8 25.0 28.0 24.0 315 291 8,820 6,990 Hastings : 21.5 17.5 21.0 17.0 330 300 6,930 5,100 Other FL : 7.3 7.5 7.0 7.0 270 270 1,890 1,890 NC 3/ : 17.0 17.5 16.5 17.0 200 200 3,300 3,400 TX : 10.3 9.8 9.8 9.3 235 240 2,303 2,232 : Total : 86.8 82.1 84.5 80.1 300 281 25,327 22,486 : Summer : AL 2/ : 3.5 5.1 2.8 4.9 220 195 616 956 CA : 6.7 6.5 6.7 6.5 360 350 2,412 2,275 CO : 7.6 8.1 7.4 7.9 320 340 2,368 2,686 DE : 4.3 4.8 4.3 4.7 250 250 1,075 1,175 IL : 4.9 5.5 4.7 5.3 350 300 1,645 1,590 IA 4/ : 1.1 0.8 225 180 KS 5/ : 3.0 2.9 340 986 MD : 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 240 240 1,128 1,128 MO : 8.0 6.2 6.2 5.9 295 240 1,829 1,416 NE 6/ : 4.9 4.5 360 1,620 NJ : 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 250 220 625 550 NM : 4.3 3.3 4.3 3.3 290 350 1,247 1,155 NC 3/ : 1.0 1.0 110 110 TX : 8.6 8.4 8.0 7.8 370 375 2,960 2,925 VA : 6.5 6.5 6.0 6.3 175 200 1,050 1,260 : Total : 68.8 64.8 63.9 62.7 295 289 18,865 18,102 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnotes at end of table. --continued Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 1999-2000 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonal : Area Planted :Area Harvested : Yield : Production Group and :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 :2000 7/: 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :--------- 1,000 Acres --------- -- Cwt -- 1,000 Cwt : Fall 8/ : CA : 9.0 8.5 9.0 8.5 445 4,005 CO : 77.2 75.8 76.9 75.6 335 25,762 ID : 395.0 415.0 393.0 413.0 339 133,330 10 SW Co: 26.0 28.0 26.0 28.0 470 12,220 Other ID: 369.0 387.0 367.0 385.0 330 121,110 IN : 5.2 4.2 4.9 4.0 270 1,323 ME : 65.0 64.0 62.5 63.0 285 17,813 MA : 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 255 740 MI : 48.0 49.0 47.5 47.5 315 14,963 MN : 70.0 66.0 53.0 60.0 340 18,020 MT : 11.0 12.0 10.9 11.8 305 3,325 NE 6/ : 21.6 25.0 21.2 24.5 420 8,904 NV : 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 440 2,860 NM : 6.6 6.8 6.6 6.8 380 2,508 NY : 26.0 22.0 25.5 21.0 265 6,758 ND : 121.0 124.0 110.0 115.0 240 26,400 OH : 4.8 4.2 4.7 4.1 210 987 OR : 56.0 57.0 55.5 56.5 505 28,020 Malheur : 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 440 4,620 Other OR: 45.5 46.5 45.0 46.0 520 23,400 PA : 14.5 13.5 14.0 13.0 220 3,080 RI : 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 225 135 SD : 3.5 4.5 3.4 4.2 290 986 UT : 2.0 1.5 2.0 1.5 290 580 WA : 170.0 175.0 170.0 175.0 560 95,200 WI : 86.0 86.0 85.0 85.0 400 34,000 WY 4/ : 0.5 0.5 295 148 : Total :1,203.0 1,223.9 1,166.1 1,199.9 369 429,847 : US :1,376.7 1,388.0 1,332.3 1,359.7 359 478,109 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 2/ Spring estimates included with summer in 2000. 3/ Summer estimates included with spring in 2000. 4/ Estimates discontinued in 2000. 5/ Estimates began in 2000. 6/ Summer estimates included with fall in 2000. 7/ Forecasted. 8/ The forecast of fall potato production will be released November 9, 2000. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1999-2000 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 5,223.0 5,702.0 4,758.0 5,235.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 77,431.0 79,579.0 70,537.0 73,088.0 Corn for Silage : 6,062.0 Hay, All : 63,160.0 62,181.0 Alfalfa : 23,985.0 23,767.0 All Other : 39,175.0 38,414.0 Oats : 4,670.0 4,472.0 2,453.0 2,472.0 Proso Millet : 600.0 450.0 540.0 Rice : 3,581.0 3,270.0 3,562.0 3,245.0 Rye : 1,582.0 1,327.0 383.0 309.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 9,288.0 8,805.0 8,544.0 8,110.0 Sorghum for Silage : 320.0 Wheat, All : 62,814.0 62,946.0 53,909.0 54,445.0 Winter : 43,431.0 43,349.0 35,572.0 35,401.0 Durum : 4,035.0 4,050.0 3,569.0 3,986.0 Other Spring : 15,348.0 15,547.0 14,768.0 15,058.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,076.0 1,503.0 1,044.0 1,459.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 387.0 593.0 382.0 575.0 Mustard Seed : 60.8 54.0 58.8 52.4 Peanuts : 1,534.5 1,495.0 1,436.0 1,467.5 Rapeseed : 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 Safflower : 275.0 224.0 262.0 209.0 Soybeans for Beans : 73,780.0 74,501.0 72,476.0 73,474.0 Sunflower : 3,553.0 2,866.0 3,441.0 2,775.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 14,873.5 15,552.0 13,424.9 Upland : 14,584.0 15,350.0 13,138.0 Amer-Pima : 289.5 202.0 286.9 Sugarbeets : 1,560.6 1,560.9 1,527.3 1,526.6 Sugarcane : 993.3 1,020.4 Tobacco : 647.2 493.8 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 6.1 4.4 Dry Edible Beans : 2,023.0 1,767.0 1,877.0 1,652.5 Dry Edible Peas : 281.6 263.6 Lentils : 182.0 174.5 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.4 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.4 Hops : 34.3 36.4 Peppermint Oil : 106.3 Potatoes, All : 1,376.7 1,388.0 1,332.3 1,359.7 Winter : 18.1 17.2 17.8 17.0 Spring : 86.8 82.1 84.5 80.1 Summer : 68.8 64.8 63.9 62.7 Fall : 1,203.0 1,223.9 1,166.1 1,199.9 Spearmint Oil : 24.4 Sweet Potatoes : 93.8 96.1 83.1 93.3 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2000 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 1999-2000 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------- 1,000 ------ : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 59.2 58.7 281,853 307,275 Corn for Grain : " : 133.8 9,437,337 Corn for Silage : Ton : 15.9 96,169 Hay, All : " : 2.52 159,077 Alfalfa : " : 3.50 83,924 All Other : " : 1.92 75,153 Oats : Bu : 59.6 61.2 146,218 151,380 Proso Millet : " : 33.2 17,910 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 5,908 210,458 Rye : Bu : 28.7 10,993 Sorghum for Grain : " : 69.7 595,166 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 11.6 3,716 Wheat, All : Bu : 42.7 41.2 2,302,443 2,242,589 Winter : " : 47.8 44.9 1,699,989 1,588,376 Durum : " : 27.8 32.2 99,322 128,152 Other Spring : " : 34.1 34.9 503,132 526,061 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,306 1,363,680 Cottonseed 3/ : Ton : 6,354 Flaxseed : Bu : 20.6 7,880 Mustard Seed : Lb : 816 48,010 Peanuts : " : 2,667 3,829,490 Rapeseed : " : 1,155 5,080 Safflower : " : 1,545 404,715 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 36.5 2,642,908 Sunflower : Lb : 1,262 4,341,862 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 607 16,968.0 Upland 2/ : " : 595 16,293.7 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,128 674.3 Sugarbeets : Ton : 21.9 33,420 Sugarcane : " : 35.5 35,299 Tobacco : Lb : 1,997 1,292,692 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,364 60 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,770 33,230 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 1,908 5,030 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,368 2,387 Wrinkled Seed Peas : " : 658 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,640 10,500 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 46,000 16,100 Hops : " : 1,881 64,456 Peppermint Oil : " : 71 7,537 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 359 478,109 Winter : " : 229 278 4,070 4,720 Spring : " : 300 281 25,327 22,486 Summer : " : 295 289 18,865 18,102 Fall : " : 369 429,847 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 101 2,454 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 147 12,234 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 6,800 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2000 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 1998-2000 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Unit :-------------------------------------------- : : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,593 2,520 2,789 K-Early Citrus (FL) : " : 2 4 5 Lemons : " : 897 747 878 Oranges : " : 13,670 9,824 13,023 Tangelos (FL) : " : 128 115 99 Tangerines : " : 360 327 444 Temples (FL) : " : 101 81 88 : : Non-Citrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 11,646.4 10,582.6 Apricots : Ton : 118.5 90.5 101.9 Bananas (HI) : Lb : 21,000.0 24,500.0 Grapes : Ton : 5,820.0 6,232.4 Olives (CA) : " : 90.0 145.0 Papayas (HI) : Lb : 39,900.0 42,400.0 Peaches : 1,000 Lbs: 2,400.7 2,513.4 2,668.1 Pears : Ton : 970.1 1,020.5 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 108.0 178.0 200.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 25.6 23.3 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 520,000 830,000 640,000 Hazelnuts : Ton : 15.5 38.0 Pecans : Lb : 146,400 406,100 Pistachios (CA) : " : 188,000 123,000 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 227.0 283.0 Maple Syrup : Gal : 1,159 1,188 1,231 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2000 crop year. 2/ Production years are 1997-98, 1998-99, and 1999-00. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1999-2000 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2,113,700 2,307,540 1,925,520 2,118,550 Corn for Grain 2/ :31,335,550 32,204,830 28,545,620 29,577,980 Corn for Silage : 2,453,230 Hay, All 3/ : 25,560,220 25,164,030 Alfalfa : 9,706,490 9,618,270 All Other : 15,853,730 15,545,760 Oats : 1,889,900 1,809,770 992,700 1,000,390 Proso Millet : 242,810 182,110 218,530 Rice : 1,449,190 1,323,340 1,441,510 1,313,220 Rye : 640,220 537,020 155,000 125,050 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,758,760 3,563,300 3,457,670 3,282,040 Sorghum for Silage : 129,500 Wheat, All 3/ :25,420,200 25,473,620 21,816,430 22,033,350 Winter :17,576,090 17,542,910 14,395,630 14,326,430 Durum : 1,632,920 1,638,990 1,444,340 1,613,090 Other Spring : 6,211,180 6,291,720 5,976,460 6,093,820 : Oilseeds : Canola : 435,450 608,250 422,500 590,440 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 156,620 239,980 154,590 232,700 Mustard Seed : 24,610 21,850 23,800 21,210 Peanuts : 621,000 605,010 581,130 593,880 Rapeseed : 1,860 1,820 1,780 1,780 Safflower : 111,290 90,650 106,030 84,580 Soybeans for Beans :29,858,030 30,149,810 29,330,310 29,734,190 Sunflower : 1,437,860 1,159,840 1,392,540 1,123,010 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 6,019,160 6,293,740 5,432,920 Upland : 5,902,000 6,211,990 5,316,820 Amer-Pima : 117,160 81,750 116,110 Sugarbeets : 631,560 631,680 618,080 617,800 Sugarcane : 401,980 412,950 Tobacco : 261,900 199,850 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 2,470 1,780 Dry Edible Beans : 818,690 715,090 759,600 668,750 Dry Edible Peas : 113,960 106,680 Lentils : 73,650 70,620 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,590 Ginger Root (HI) : 140 Hops : 13,860 14,730 Peppermint Oil : 43,020 Potatoes, All 3/ : 557,140 561,710 539,170 550,260 Winter : 7,320 6,960 7,200 6,880 Spring : 35,130 33,230 34,200 32,420 Summer : 27,840 26,220 25,860 25,370 Fall : 486,840 495,300 471,910 485,590 Spearmint Oil : 9,870 Sweet Potatoes : 37,960 38,890 33,630 37,760 Taro (HI) 4/ : 200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2000 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 1999-2000 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.19 3.16 6,136,620 6,690,120 Corn for Grain : 8.40 239,719,400 Corn for Silage : 35.56 87,243,050 Hay, All 2/ : 5.65 144,312,230 Alfalfa : 7.84 76,134,570 All Other : 4.30 68,177,650 Oats : 2.14 2.20 2,122,350 2,197,270 Proso Millet : 1.86 406,190 Rice : 6.62 9,546,210 Rye : 1.80 279,240 Sorghum for Grain : 4.37 15,117,910 Sorghum for Silage : 26.03 3,371,100 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.87 2.77 62,662,230 61,033,270 Winter : 3.21 3.02 46,266,120 43,228,510 Durum : 1.87 2.16 2,703,100 3,487,730 Other Spring : 2.29 2.35 13,693,010 14,317,030 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.46 618,550 Cottonseed 3/ : 5,763,800 Flaxseed : 1.29 200,160 Mustard Seed : 0.92 21,780 Peanuts : 2.99 1,737,030 Rapeseed : 1.29 2,300 Safflower : 1.73 183,580 Soybeans for Beans : 2.45 71,928,170 Sunflower : 1.41 1,969,440 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.68 3,694,350 Upland : 0.67 3,547,540 Amer-Pima : 1.26 146,810 Sugarbeets : 49.05 30,318,110 Sugarcane : 79.66 32,022,710 Tobacco : 2.24 586,360 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.53 2,720 Dry Edible Beans : 1.98 1,507,290 Dry Edible Peas : 2.14 228,160 Lentils : 1.53 108,270 Wrinkled Seed Peas : 29,850 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.84 4,760 Ginger Root (HI) : 51.56 7,300 Hops : 2.11 29,240 Peppermint Oil : 0.08 3,420 Potatoes, All 2/ : 40.22 21,686,660 Winter : 25.63 31.12 184,610 214,100 Spring : 33.59 31.46 1,148,810 1,019,950 Summer : 33.09 32.36 855,700 821,090 Fall : 41.32 19,497,530 Spearmint Oil : 0.11 1,110 Sweet Potatoes : 16.50 554,920 Taro (HI) 3/ : 3,080 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2000 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 1998-2000 (Metric Units) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 2,352,330 2,286,110 2,530,140 K-Early Citrus (FL) : 1,810 3,630 4,540 Lemons : 813,740 677,670 796,510 Oranges : 12,401,220 8,912,180 11,814,270 Tangelos (FL) : 116,120 104,330 89,810 Tangerines : 326,590 296,650 402,790 Temples (FL) : 91,630 73,480 79,830 : Non-Citrus : Apples : 5,282,720 4,800,190 Apricots : 107,490 82,100 Bananas (HI) : 9,530 11,110 Grapes : 5,279,770 5,653,970 Olives (CA) : 81,650 131,540 Papayas (HI) : 18,100 19,230 Peaches : 1,088,940 1,140,060 1,210,230 Pears : 880,100 925,740 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 97,980 161,480 181,440 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 23,220 21,140 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 235,870 376,480 290,300 Hazelnuts : 14,060 34,470 Pecans : 66,410 184,200 Pistachios (CA) : 85,280 55,790 Walnuts (CA) : 205,930 256,730 Maple Syrup : 5,790 5,940 6,150 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2000 crop year. 2/ Production years are 1997-98, 1998-99, and 1999-00. June Weather Summary Frequent, often heavy showers soaked areas from the southern and eastern Plains into the Midwest and Northeast, maintaining adequate to locally excessive soil moisture for summer crop development. The wet conditions slowed final winter wheat harvesting on the central and southern Plains, and caused some harvest delays in the Ohio Valley. Although cool, wet conditions significantly eased long-term drought in the southwestern Corn Belt, dry, occasionally hot weather brought drought intensification and stress to dryland crops on the central and northern High Plains. In the South, soil moisture remained generally adequate from the Delta westward, although a late-month drying trend depleted topsoil moisture across southern Texas. Mid- to late-month showers in the Southeast aided pastures and summer crops, but provided little relief from the long-term drought. Meanwhile in the Southwest, the early arrival of seasonal showers eased irrigation requirements and curbed the wildfire threat. In California, favorably warm, dry weather followed early-month showers. Much of the interior Northwest remained dry throughout the month, promoting winter wheat maturation but reducing soil moisture for spring-sown grains. Monthly temperatures averaged near normal in the Northwest but generally ranged from 1 to 5 degrees F above normal in California and the Southwest. More than 100 daily-record highs were set before June 10, many of them in the Southwest before heat briefly overspread the Plains and upper Midwest. A short-lived but intense heat wave produced numerous monthly and all-time records in California on June 14. East of the Rockies, the only large area of above-normal June temperatures (up to 3 degrees F above normal) encompassed the middle and southern Atlantic regions. In contrast, monthly readings averaged 1 to 4 degrees F below normal in much of the Plains and Midwest. Corn Belt temperature remained at or below 90 degrees F throughout the month, except for a brief period in early June across western areas, favoring corn and soybean development. General Crop Comments In early June, severe storms moved across the Corn Belt but most of the precipitation was beneficial for crop development. Corn and soybeans emerged well ahead of normal, and by June 4, ninety-seven percent of the corn and 80 percent of the soybeans were emerged. However, emergence was slowed by saturated soils in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio, while moisture shortages hindered emergence and growth in parts of the western Corn Belt. Triple-digit temperatures accelerated ripening of winter wheat in the central and northern Great Plains before mid-June. In Kansas, 57 percent of the wheat was ripe on June 11, compared with the 5-year average of 11 percent. In the Corn Belt, 90 percent of the wheat was headed in Michigan, 42 percent was turning color in Ohio, and 28 percent was ripe in Illinois. In Idaho and Washington, about one-fourth of the acreage entered the heading stage during the week ended June 11. The winter wheat harvest progressed one week ahead of normal, as harvest rapidly progressed in the southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. Producers in Oklahoma and Arkansas harvested more than one-third of the acreage during the week ended June 11. Harvest also accelerated in California, Missouri, and North Carolina. Harvest began in Kansas, where growers harvested 9 percent of the acreage, and along the Ohio River Valley in the southern Corn Belt. Conditions deteriorated in the central and northern Great Plains due to hot weather and increasing moisture shortages. Cotton planting and development progressed at a normal pace through mid-June, with 88 percent planted and 11 percent squaring on June 11. Development was most advanced in Arizona and California, but acreage squaring accelerated in the lower Mississippi Valley due to warm weather. Increasing moisture shortages stressed cotton in most areas of the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the southern High Plains. Meanwhile, rain provided adequate moisture in scattered parts of northern Texas. Spring wheat and barley developed well ahead of normal, as timely showers aided emergence and stimulated growth across the Great Plains early in the month. In the Pacific Northwest, development continued even though cooler-than-normal weather prevailed. On June 11, spring wheat was 7 percent headed, barley was 12 percent headed, and oat acreage was 21 percent headed. Above-normal temperatures aided oat development in Iowa and Nebraska, where nearly two-thirds of the crop was at or beyond the heading stage. Heavy rain boosted soil moisture supplies and improved crop conditions in the Corn Belt and parts of the southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley near mid-month. Later in the month, strong thunderstorms provided additional moisture for parts of the Corn Belt and Great Plains. However, crops in parts of the northern and eastern Corn Belt deteriorated due to excessive soil moisture, while parts of the western and southern Corn Belt remained too dry. As the end of June approached, winter wheat harvest rapidly progressed in the Great Plains and accelerated in the Corn Belt. Harvest progressed to 52 percent complete on June 25 and, at 80 percent, the Kansas wheat harvest was four times the normal pace for this date. Harvest rapidly advanced in Illinois and Missouri, even though rain temporarily halted progress. The harvest gained momentum in Nebraska and began in Ohio and Colorado. Mostly dry conditions aided late-month harvest progress in Arkansas, California, and Texas. Mostly light-to-moderate showers, and some isolated heavy rainfall, eased moisture shortages and boosted crop conditions in the Southeast near the end of June. Above-normal temperatures accelerated cotton development and by June 25, fifty-nine percent was at or beyond the squaring stage, well ahead of last year and the 5-year average. In the lower Mississippi Valley, cotton squaring rapidly progressed. Acreage setting bolls advanced to 11 percent, as progress jumped 13 percentage points in Louisiana and Arizona during the week ending June 25. Below-normal temperatures briefly slowed development in Texas. Four percent of the corn acreage was at or beyond the silking stage on June 25, slightly ahead of last year and the 5-year average for this date. Fields rapidly entered the silking stage in Missouri, even though temperatures averaged slightly below normal. A few fields entered the silking stage in Illinois, Kansas, and Nebraska. Soybean development remained nearly 1 week ahead of the 5-year average, with 95 percent of the acreage emerged and 8 percent of the crop blooming on June 25. Crop development was most advanced in the lower Mississippi Valley, with 35 and 43 percent blooming in Louisiana and Mississippi, respectively. Despite below-normal temperatures, development accelerated in the Corn Belt, with more than 10 percent of the crop blooming in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, and Missouri. A few fields progressed to the blooming stage in the northern Great Plains. Widespread moderate-to-heavy rain increased soil moisture supplies and aided crop conditions in the southern and western Corn Belt late in the month. In the central and eastern Corn Belt, many fields suffered due to saturated soils and standing water. Excessive moisture also damaged some fields in Iowa and Nebraska, while parts of both States remained too dry. Warm, dry weather benefited corn fields in Michigan. Heavy rain and severe flooding damaged soybean fields in North Dakota and parts of the Corn Belt late in the month. In Michigan, dry weather reduced surplus moisture supplies late in the month and significantly improved crop conditions. In other areas of the Corn Belt, especially in Missouri, much-needed rain improved conditions. Oats: Production is estimated at 151.4 million bushels, 4 percent above last year's 146.2 million bushels. The estimated yield is 61.2 bushels per acre, up 1.6 bushels from 1999. If realized, this would be the third highest yield on record, behind only the record yield of 65.4 bushels per acre in 1992 and the 63.6 bushels per acre produced in 1985. Area for harvest was unchanged from the previous estimate of 2.47 million acres. Oat seeding progressed well ahead of normal, as dry weather aided progress in the central Great Plains and across the northern Corn Belt during the first half of April. Planting accelerated in Ohio and Pennsylvania in late April. By mid-May, seeding was 92 percent complete. Warm weather and timely rain aided germination in the central Corn Belt and Great Lakes region. However, diminishing soil moisture reserves limited progress in Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska during the second half of April. In Ohio and Pennsylvania, cool, wet weather hindered development. Seasonal temperatures and adequate moisture supplies promoted rapid germination in North Dakota, and by May 28, the Nation's oat acreage was 96 percent emerged. Development continued ahead of the 5-year average through June, even though temperatures averaged slightly below-normal. On July 2, seventy-nine percent of the crop was headed in the 8 major oat-producing States, well ahead of the 5-year average of 60 percent. Nearly all of the acreage was headed in Iowa and Nebraska. Almost half of the acreage was headed in North Dakota, more than double the normal progress of 21 percent. As of July 2, seventy-four percent of the acreage in the 8 major oat-producing States was rated good to excellent and only 6 percent was in poor or very poor condition. Barley: Barley production for 2000 is forecast at 307 million bushels, up 9 percent from 1999. The first forecast for 2000 indicates producers expect to average 58.7 bushels per acre, a decrease of 0.5 bushel from last year. Area harvested, at 5.24 million acres, is 10 percent above the 4.76 million acres harvested in 1999, unchanged from the June Acreage Report. Even though expected yields are slightly lower in 2000, the increase in harvested acres has reversed the five-year trend of declining production. In comparing yields to the previous year, 8 States are expecting higher yields in 2000, while 8 States are forecasting lower yields or no change from 1999. Maine, New York, and Ohio were added to the barley estimating program in 2000. Northern Great Plains States are mostly showing higher yields than 1999. Producers in North Dakota, the largest barley acreage State, expect yields to average 52 bushels per acre, an increase of 4 bushels over the 1999 yield. Yields have been helped by above average spring temperatures and adequate moisture. However, recent heavy rains and high humidity have raised concerns for wide area disease outbreaks. Yields in the central Great Plains and Rocky Mountain States show decreases due to below normal precipitation. Heading progress in the five major-producing States was 54 percent complete as of July 2, compared with the 5-year average of 37 percent. Condition of the crop at that time was rated 63 percent good to excellent, equal to 1999. Winter Wheat: Acres for harvest as grain are forecast at 35.4 million, down slightly from 1999. Harvest progress in the 18 major producing States had reached 65 percent completion by July 2. This was more than 20 points ahead of both last year and the normal pace. Yield declines are forecast in all of the major Hard Red Wheat (HRW) States. Forecasted head counts from the Objective Yield surveys in the six HRW States (Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas) are down slightly from last month, while weight per head is down a collective 4 percent. Above average rainfall during June caused some harvest delay in Oklahoma. Harvest has progressed rapidly in Kansas and Nebraska. Harvested yields were better than previously expected in the Soft Red Wheat (SRW) States. Arkansas, Georgia, Indiana, Mississippi, and Pennsylvania now expect record highs. These States joined Ohio where a record had been forecast a month ago. Collective head count forecasts are virtually unchanged in the SRW Objective Yield States (Illinois, Missouri, Ohio), but average weight per head is up 8 percent from a month ago. Combined plant populations in the Pacific Northwest Objective Yield region are at record high levels, but forecasted head weight is still lower than normal. Idaho expects a record high yield. Yield prospects improved in Michigan, but dimmed somewhat in New York. Durum Wheat: Area for 2000 grain harvest is expected to total 3.99 million acres, up 12 percent from last year. Harvest in the California Imperial Valley finished around the middle of June, with protein levels above normal and excellent yields reported. Excessive amounts of rain in June caused flooding in the southern half of the Red River Valley in Minnesota. Despite this, development is ahead of normal. The major growing areas of North Dakota have not been affected by the flooding in the Red River Valley. Soil moisture conditions are currently rated mostly adequate with pockets of surplus in the durum growing regions. Other Spring Wheat: Harvested area is forecast at 15.1 million acres, up 2 percent from last year. Acreage was 62 percent headed in the six major producing States, 22 points ahead of normal. The Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, Washington) production forecast is up slightly from a year ago. Yield increases in all three States offset a decline in acreage in the region. After a warm spring, crop development is ahead of normal in Idaho. The Oregon crop is mostly in fair to good condition. In Washington, the crop development is near normal and has been aided by timely rains. Spring wheat in the Golden Triangle of Montana is under considerable stress and very weak stands have been reported. Condition of the Dakota's spring crop is mostly good to excellent. Timely rains and excellent planting conditions enabled the South Dakota crop to get off to a great start. Development is ahead of normal in Minnesota despite flooding in the southern portion of the Red River Valley. Tobacco: U.S. all flue-cured tobacco production is forecast at 598.4 million pounds, down 9 percent from the 1999 crop and 26 percent below 1998. Yield per acre for flue-cured is forecast at 2,357 pounds, up 195 pounds from 1999 and 153 pounds above two years ago. Yields for all flue-cured types increased from last year in Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina but declined in Florida and Virginia. The decline in production is due to a 16 percent decrease in acreage. North Carolina's Flue-cured tobacco production is forecast at 405.2 million pounds, down 7 percent from the 1999 crop. Yield per acre is forecast at 2,412 pounds, up 229 pounds from 1999. This is the highest all flue-cured yield since 1994. Flue-cured tobacco production in South Carolina is forecast at 76.5 million pounds, down 2 percent from the 1999 crop. Yield per acre is forecast at 2,250 pounds, up 250 pounds from 1999. The crop is reported to be two-thirds topped and in good condition. Georgia's Flue-cured tobacco production is forecast at 64.5 million pounds, up 1 percent from the 1999 crop. Yield per acre is forecast at 2,150 pounds, up 210 pounds from 1999. Harvest is about 13 percent complete. Flue-cured tobacco production in Virginia is forecast at 40.0 million pounds, down 37 percent from the 1999 crop. Yield per acre is forecast at 2,350 pounds, down 70 pounds from the 1999 record yield of 2,420 pounds. The season began with near ideal conditions and timely rains during June resulted in crop conditions at mostly good and excellent levels. Florida's Flue-cured tobacco production is forecast at 12.3 million pounds, down 20 percent from the 1999 crop. Yield per acre is forecast at 2,500 pounds, down 140 pounds from the 1999 crop. Harvest got underway during late June. Lower than normal yield is due to the existing drought conditions. Peaches: The July 2000 forecast of U.S. peach production is 2.67 billion pounds, up 6 percent from 1999 and 11 percent above two years ago. All peach producing States west of the Mississippi river, with the exception of Missouri, expect the same or increased peach production for 2000. The California Clingstone crop is forecast at 1.12 billion pounds, unchanged from the June 1 forecast but 6 percent above 1999. Quality of Clingstones harvested has been good, but sizing concerns have persisted in the Yuba City and Kingsburg areas and some mildew damage was reported in the Modesto area. Overall the majority of the crop remains in good condition. The California Freestone crop is forecast at a record high 840.0 million pounds, unchanged from the June 1 forecast but 12 percent above 1999. The Freestone peach crop continues to progress normally with harvest active. Recent cool weather has caused minimal delays to fruit maturity and overall crop condition remains good. The South Carolina peach crop is forecast at 150.0 million pounds, down 6 percent from last year but up 7 percent from 1998. Conditions of the crop vary widely from poor to excellent throughout the State depending on local weather conditions and availability of irrigation. Peach harvest is ahead of last year and the five-year average. Recent widespread showers should improve the later maturing varieties. North Carolina's peach crop, forecast at 27.0 million pounds, is down 4 percent from last year but 8 percent above two years ago. Georgia's peach crop is forecast at 105.0 million pounds, down 5 percent from 1999 but up 50 percent from the 1998 freeze and hail-damaged crop. As of July 9, harvest was 70 percent complete, and 5 percent behind the five-year average. At the end of June, the crop was rated mostly fair to good, with a significant portion rated excellent. In New Jersey, production is forecast at 70.0 million pounds, unchanged from both 1999 and 1998. Fruit is sizing well at the current time. Many central and north Jersey peach orchards experienced hail and storm damage during bloom, however in south Jersey orchards reported little or no damage. Production in Pennsylvania is forecast at 50.0 million pounds, 33 percent below last year and down 23 percent from 1998. Many producers in Pennsylvania were affected by the hard freeze in April and hailstorms in May. A few producers did report the Plum Pox virus being a problem and they had to remove many or all of their trees. However, it doesn't seem to be widespread through the State. Production in New York is forecast at 11.7 million pounds, 16 percent below 1999 but 17 percent above two years ago. Production in Massachusetts is forecast to be 5 percent above 1999 and production in Connecticut is unchanged from last year. Michigan's peach crop is forecast at 43.0 million pounds, 87 percent above 1999's freeze damaged crop but unchanged from two years ago. The Michigan peach crop has good to excellent prospects, with only slight frost damage this spring. Fruit diameter is at 2.0 inches, slightly ahead of normal development. Peach production in Indiana and Ohio are down 10 percent and 14 percent respectively from last year. Production is also down 10 percent in Missouri. Peach production in Kentucky is forecast at 3.5 million pounds, up 94 percent from last year's drought-reduced crop. Illinois' production, at 19.0 million pounds, remains unchanged from last year. Production in Virginia and West Virginia are down 33 percent and 40 percent respectively from 1999, however production is up 2 percent in Maryland. Tennessee and Alabama are both down in production from 1999. Production is up in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas. Oklahoma's production remains unchanged from last year. The Washington peach crop is forecast at 55.0 million pounds, 8 percent above last year and up 6 percent from 1998. This is the highest since 1966, when production was estimated at 67.2 million pounds. Production is also up from 1999 in Oregon, Idaho, and Utah. In Colorado, production is forecast at 21.0 million pounds. If realized, this is the highest since 1973 when production was estimated at 28.0 million pounds. California Grapes: California's all grape production is forecast at a record high 6.70 million tons, up 21 percent from last year and 27 percent above 1998. If realized, the 2000 crop will be 1 percent above the previous record of 6.65 million tons set in 1997. Wine type grapes account for 48 percent of California's total production, raisin types account for 40 percent, while the remaining 12 percent are table type grapes. Table type grape production is expected to be 800,000 tons, up 6 percent from last year and 24 percent greater than 1998. Harvest was active through late June in the Coachella Valley, with good quality reported. Picking had begun in the southern San Joaquin Valley by July 1 with Perlette and Flame Seedless the primary varieties being harvested. Wine type variety grape production is forecast at 3.20 million tons, up 20 percent from last season's crop and 25 percent higher than the 1998 crop. Crop development has been excellent this spring with warm and dry weather. Maturity levels are reported near normal for July1. California's raisin type variety grape production is forecast at 2.70 million tons, up 28 percent from last year and 30 percent above the 1998 crop. The spring weather was dry and warm, enhancing bunch growth and development. A high number of bunches per vine space are reported. Maturity is a few days ahead of normal. Harvest of the Thompson Seedless variety for fresh use was active through late June in the Coachella Valley with good quality reported. Apricots: The final forecast for the 2000 apricot crop is 101,900 tons, up 13 percent from last year's crop but down 14 percent from 1998. California's 2000 apricot production is forecast at 95,000 tons, up 12 percent from last year but 16 percent below 1998. California represents 93 percent of the U.S. apricot crop. Wide variation in apricot bloom between orchards and hail storms in the southern San Joaquin Valley combined to reduce fruit count. Fruit size is reported as normal. Almonds: California almond production is forecast at 640 million meat pounds, based upon results of an objective measurement survey. The expected production is down 5 percent from May's subjective forecast and off 23 percent from last year's record crop. Bearing acreage is forecast at 500,000 acres. Average yield is forecast at 1,280 pounds per acre. The weather during the critical bloom was variable with heavy rain and cool temperatures. This resulted in an uneven set with some varieties having a heavy set while others were very light. Warm temperatures during April helped move the crop development 2 to 3 weeks ahead of last year's crop and near the normal progress. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya output is estimated at 4.28 million pounds for June, 11 percent lower than May but 33 percent higher than June 1999. Area in crop totaled 2,575 acres, 16 percent lower than May and 24 percent below a year ago. Harvested area, totaling 1,585 acres, was 5 percent lower than last month and 22 percent below last June. Weather conditions during June were a mix of sunshine and showers. Warm temperatures and long daylight hours were beneficial toward orchard development and fruit maturation. Soil moisture in unirrigated orchards was adequate. Grapefruit: The U.S. grapefruit forecast is 2.79 million tons, virtually unchanged from the June forecast, but 11 percent above last season. The forecast of Florida grapefruit utilization is adjusted upward by less than 1 percent to 53.3 million boxes (2.27 million tons). White seedless, at 20.9 million boxes (888,000 tons), is down slightly from June. The colored seedless forecast is increased to a record large 31.8 million boxes (1.35 million tons), a 1 percent increase from a month ago. The white seedless forecast is 17 percent higher than last season and the colored seedless forecast is 11 percent above the previous season. The seedy grapefruit forecast continues at 600,000 boxes (26,000 tons), 50,000 boxes higher than last season. The California July 1 grapefruit forecast is 8.00 million boxes (268,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but up 7 percent from last season. Harvest has been active, but delayed due to a high percentage of small size fruit. Crop quality is good. Arizona's grapefruit forecast, at 500,000 boxes (17,000 tons), is down nearly 40 percent from the previous forecast. Growers didn't harvest what they had initially intended due to low prices. The Texas forecast, at 5.95 million boxes (238,000 tons), is carried forward from the June forecast. Lemons: The 1999-00 lemon forecast for United States is 878,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 18 percent from last season. California production is forecast at 20.0 million boxes (760,000 tons), the same as the previous forecast but 23 percent more than the previous season. In the south coastal growing region, harvest volume has been heavy. The excellent coastal weather has provided for premium growth. Quality has been better than in recent seasons. The Arizona lemon crop is forecast at 3.10 million boxes (118,000 tons), unchanged from the April forecast but down 10 percent from the previous season. Florida Citrus: The first twenty days of June continued dry across the Florida citrus belt. Precipitation finally arrived and continued throughout the last ten days of the month. Growers and caretakers continued to irrigate where water was available until the daily showers and thunderstorms covered the State's citrus producing counties. In spite of the winter and spring drought, new crop fruit in well cared for groves continues in good condition. There is spotty late bloom in some groves that were stressed during the dry months. Harvest of Valencias continued during the first half of June. Most of the processors closed before the end of the month. Grapefruit movement was virtually complete by the last week of June. There are only a few groves of Honey tangerines remaining to be harvested. Caretakers were very active the first part of the month irrigating groves and maintaining equipment. Pesticide applications, fertilizing, hedging and topping continue. The burning ban has been lifted in all areas now that the summer rains have arrived. California Citrus: The Valencia orange harvest is in full swing with approximately 10 percent of the crop picked. A few of the late variety Navel oranges remain to be harvested. New crop oranges were experiencing June drop during the past month. Lemon picking was also active in the south coast area. Good quality was reported. Grapefruit harvest continued and growers are concerned about small sizes. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Many fruit crops were harvested during June. Grapes for fresh use were picked in the Coachella Valley. Thompson Seedless and Flame Seedless were the primary varieties. Harvest of Flame Seedless and Perlette table grapes began in the southern San Joaquin Valley in late June. Grape growers were also treating for mildew and leafhoppers. Apples were treated for codling moth. Harvest of apricots, freestone peaches, nectarines, and plums was also active. Warmer temperatures in June enhanced maturity and the various fruits were in good condition. Thinning of olives was active. Clingstone peach harvesting began south of the Fresno area. Quality was good, but with small sizes. Strawberry harvest remained active. All Potatoes: Potato farmers across the United States have planted an estimated 1.39 million acres of potatoes in all four seasons this year, up 1 percent from last year. Area for harvest, forecast at 1.36 million acres, is up 2 percent from a year ago. In earlier forecasts, winter production jumped 16 percent over a year ago, while spring potatoes fell 11 percent. The summer forecast places production down 1 percent from last season in comparable States. Winter and spring plantings were down 5 percent from last year and summer acreage was off 3 percent in comparable States. The estimate of fall planted acreage is up 1 percent from last year in comparable States. Changes to the seasonal statistical program combines Alabama spring production with summer this year and combines former summer production in North Carolina and Nebraska with spring and fall seasons, respectively. Iowa and Wyoming estimates have been dropped and Kansas production has been added to the estimating program. Fall Potatoes: Area planted to fall potatoes this year is estimated at 1.22 million acres, up 1 percent on a comparable basis. Harvest is expected from 1.20 million acres, a gain of 3 percent from a year ago. Comparability is achieved by adding Nebraska's summer acreage to their fall total last year and subtracting out Wyoming. Eastern States have planted an estimated 102,900 acres this year, down 6 percent from last year. Maine's planted acreage is estimated at 64,000 acres, down 2 percent from last year. Massachusetts' acreage was down 3 percent and Rhode Island's acreage fell 17 percent. New York's planted acreage was down 15 percent. A cool, wet spring in most of New England and New York delayed planting and got the crop off to a slow start. Pennsylvania's potato acreage was down 7 percent from a year ago. The crop is progressing well throughout the State. Central States planted an estimated 362,900 acres of fall potatoes this year, down 1 percent from last year. Acreage in South Dakota jumped 29 percent. Michigan and North Dakota were up 2 percent each while Wisconsin held at last year's planted level. Planted acreage was down 6 percent in Minnesota and Nebraska. Ohio dropped 12 percent and Indiana fell 19 percent. The eastern Corn Belt started off cool and wet for potatoes this year with Ohio's crop progress about four days behind last year. Recent rains caused some flooding in Indiana. Michigan's progress was slow and harvest will be delayed to late July. In Wisconsin, Minnesota, and North Dakota, dry spring weather gave way to rain in June, leaving many fields waterlogged and making conditions ripe for late blight. North Dakota potatoes were rated poor to good. Nebraska's diminishing summer season is combined into the larger fall season for a single estimate this year. Percent comparisons, in the paragraph above, are based on a combination of the two crops. Western States potato plantings were estimated at 758,100 acres this year, up 3 percent from last year. The increase in western acreage is concentrated in the Pacific Northwest. Idaho's plantings are up 5 percent. Washington's acreage rose 3 percent and Oregon's acreage was up 2 percent. Montana increased their seed acreage by 9 percent and New Mexico was up 3 percent. In the other direction, Colorado plantings were off 2 percent and Utah dropped 25 percent from last year. California's fall potato acreage slipped by 6 percent, continuing a long-term decline. Warm spring weather allowed most of the western potato acreage to be planted ahead of schedule. Growth has been good and harvest should start ahead of normal. Some Colorado potato fields were hit by hail in late June. Oregon's crop looks good statewide. Summer Potatoes: Production of summer potatoes is forecast at 18.1 million cwt in 2000, with harvest coming from 62,700 acres and an average yield of 289 cwt per acre. Comparable totals may be calculated by adding last year's Alabama spring estimates with summer and subtracting out Iowa, Nebraska, and North Carolina's crops from the summer totals. On a comparable basis, summer production is down 1 percent from last year while acreage for harvest is up 1 percent. Average yield per acre is expected to be down 5 cwt. Smaller potato crops are seen in California, down 6 percent; Illinois, down 3 percent; Missouri, down 23 percent; New Jersey, 12 percent lower; and Texas, down 1 percent. Larger crops are emerging in Alabama, up 7 percent; Colorado, up 13 percent; Delaware and Virginia, up 9 and 20 percent, respectively. Kansas will add nearly a million cwt of potatoes to the summer mix. Harvest is active on the DelMarVa Peninsula. Virginia growers report excellent yields from early fields. Delaware and Maryland potatoes are being harvested. Cold, wet spring weather in New Jersey slowed the growth of potatoes. Dry weather in southern Alabama reduced early yields while harvest is continuing and moving north. Missouri harvest is nearly finished in southeastern counties and will start later this month in the northwest. Texas potato harvest is active. California harvest should begin in early July. Heavy rains early in the season delayed planting and caused some field losses. Reliability of July 1 Winter Wheat Production Forecast Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between June 25 and July 5 to gather information on expected yield as of July 1. The objective yield survey was conducted in twelve States that accounted for 65 percent of the 1999 winter wheat production. Farm operators were interviewed to update previously reported acreage data and seek permission to randomly locate two sample plots in selected winter wheat fields. The counts made within each sample plot depended upon the crop's maturity. In early fields, counts such as number of stalks, heads in late boot, and number of emerged heads were made to predict the number of heads that would be harvested. A 5-year historical average head weight is used until the crop matures to the point that heads can be clipped, threshed, and weighed. The number of heads times the weight of the heads in a sample plot can then be combined to an estimate of yield per acre. The 5-year average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until the crop reaches maturity and are harvested on the final visit. The farm operator survey included a sample of approximately 11,000 producers representing all major production areas. These producers were selected from an earlier acreage survey and were asked about the probable winter wheat acres for harvest and yield on their operation. These growers will be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields as the season progresses. Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported data were reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous months and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published July 1 forecasts. Revision Policy: The July 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative data warrant changes. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the July 1 winter wheat production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. This is done by expressing the deviation between the July 1 production forecast and the final estimate as a percentage of the final estimate, and averaging the squared percentage deviations for the 1980-1999 20-year period; the square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the July 1 winter wheat production forecast is 1.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast of 1.59 billion bushels will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 1.8 percent or approximately 28.6 million bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 3.2 percent or approximately 50.8 million bushels. Differences between the July 1 winter wheat production forecast and the final estimate during the past 20 years have averaged 27 million bushels, ranging from 4 million to 65 million bushels. The July 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 10 times and above 10 times. This does not imply that the July 1 winter wheat forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Brad Parks, Head (202) 720-2127 Rhonda Brandt - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526 Herman Ellison - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Jay V. Johnson - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Roy Karkosh - Hay, Sorghum, Barley (202) 690-3234 Mark E. Miller - Oats, Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621 Jerry Ramirez - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables (202) 720-3250 Steve Gunn - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries, Prunes, Plums (202) 720-4288 Jeffrey Kissel - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas, Mushrooms (202) 690-0270 Keith Lacy - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Dave Ranek - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 720-4215 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on August 11, 2000. 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