Cr Pr 2-2 (1-07) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 12, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Orange Production Unchanged The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2006-07 season is 8.12 million tons, virtually unchanged from the December forecast but down 9 percent from last season's final utilization of 8.90 million tons. Florida's all orange forecast, at 140 million boxes (6.30 million tons), is unchanged from December but down 5 percent from the 2005-06 hurricane-reduced crop. Most of Florida's citrus growing areas experienced warmer than average temperatures during December but also received significant precipitation. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 75.0 million boxes (3.38 million tons), unchanged from both the previous forecast and last season's final utilization. The row count survey conducted December 26-27 indicates that 34 percent of the early-midseason orange rows have been harvested. Beginning with the current season, Temple oranges are included in this category. Florida's Valencia forecast is 65.0 million boxes (2.93 million tons), also unchanged from the October forecast but down 11 percent from last season's final utilization. Projections of average fruit size and percent of fruit dropped have increased since last month for both early-midseason and Valencia oranges. The all orange forecast for California, at 46.0 million boxes (1.73 million tons), is unchanged from the October forecast but down 20 percent from last season's final utilization. The navel orange forecast is 33.0 million boxes (1.24 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 27 percent lower than the previous season. California's Valencia orange forecast is also unchanged from the previous forecast but is 8 percent higher than the 2005-06 season's utilization. The all orange forecast for Texas, at 1.98 million boxes (84,000 tons), is up 11 percent from the October forecast and 24 percent higher than last season's production. Abundant rain in September and October has helped the crop. The early-midseason orange forecast is 1.71 million boxes (73,000 tons), up 11 percent from the previous forecast and up 22 percent from last season. The Texas Valencia orange forecast is 270,000 boxes (11,000 tons), up 13 percent from the October forecast and 35 percent higher than last season's utilized production. Arizona's all orange forecast, at 350,000 boxes (14,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but 22 percent lower than the 2005-06 season's utilized production. Navel orange production is forecast at 200,000 boxes (8,000 tons), unchanged from the October forecast but down 20 percent from last season. The Valencia forecast, at 150,000 boxes (6,000 tons), is unchanged from October but 25 percent lower than the previous season. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2006-07 season is forecast at 1.58 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from last month's forecast but down from the 2005-06 season's yield of 1.63 gallons. Projected yield from the early-midseason portion is 1.51 gallons, down from 1.53 gallons last season. Valencias are projected to yield 1.70 gallons, down from 1.75 gallons for the 2005-06 crop. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. This report was approved on January 12, 2007. Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Carol C. House Contents Page Grains & Hay Hay Stocks. . . . . . . . . . 6 Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Citrus Fruits Grapefruit. . . . . . . . . . 5 Lemons. . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Oranges . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Tangelos. . . . . . . . . . . 5 Tangerines. . . . . . . . . . 5 Temples . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Potatoes & Miscellaneous Crops Potatoes. . . . . . . . . . . 4 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . .14 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . 7 Information Contacts . . . . . .18 Reliability of Production Data in this Report17 Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . .13 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . .14 Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : : Seasonal :---------------------------: Yield : Production Group : Planted : Harvested : : and :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Acres ------ --- Cwt --- ------ 1,000 Cwt ----- : Winter : CA : 12.0 11.5 12.0 11.5 260 250 3,500 3,120 2,875 FL 1/ : 5.7 5.5 250 1,392 1,375 : Total : 17.7 11.5 17.5 11.5 257 250 4,892 4,495 2,875 : Spring 2/ : AZ : 3.9 3.9 300 1,183 1,170 CA : 15.3 15.3 395 6,116 6,044 FL 1/ : 23.1 22.6 285 6,527 6,441 Hastings: 17.0 16.6 285 4,760 4,731 Other FL: 6.1 6.0 285 1,767 1,710 NC : 17.7 15.5 210 2,850 3,255 TX : 10.7 10.2 280 2,048 2,856 : Total : 70.7 67.5 293 18,724 19,766 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Winter potatoes combined with spring potatoes in 2007. 2/ 2006 revised. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production by Month, Hawaii, 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Nov : 2,300 2,140 1,405 1,325 2,020 2,520 Dec : 2,290 2,350 1,780 1,135 2,550 2,220 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2004-05, 2005-06 and Forecasted January 1, 2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2004-05 : 2005-06 : 2006-07 : 2004-05 : 2005-06 : 2006-07 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------ Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ : 240 250 200 9 9 8 CA : 44,000 45,500 33,000 1,650 1,706 1,238 FL 4/ : 79,100 75,000 75,000 3,560 3,375 3,375 TX : 1,500 1,400 1,710 64 60 73 US : 124,840 122,150 109,910 5,283 5,150 4,694 Valencia : AZ : 190 200 150 7 8 6 CA : 20,500 12,000 13,000 769 450 488 FL : 70,700 72,900 65,000 3,182 3,281 2,925 TX : 270 200 270 11 9 11 US : 91,660 85,300 78,420 3,969 3,748 3,430 All : AZ : 430 450 350 16 17 14 CA : 64,500 57,500 46,000 2,419 2,156 1,726 FL : 149,800 147,900 140,000 6,742 6,656 6,300 TX : 1,770 1,600 1,980 75 69 84 US : 216,500 207,450 188,330 9,252 8,898 8,124 Temples 4/ : FL : 650 700 29 32 Grapefruit : White : FL : 3,400 6,500 9,000 145 276 383 Colored : FL : 9,400 12,800 17,000 400 544 723 All : AZ : 140 100 100 5 3 3 CA : 6,100 6,000 6,000 204 201 201 FL : 12,800 19,300 26,000 545 820 1,106 TX : 6,600 5,200 6,500 264 208 260 US : 25,640 30,600 38,600 1,018 1,232 1,570 Tangerines : AZ 5/ : 400 550 400 15 21 15 CA 5/ : 2,900 3,600 3,800 109 135 143 FL : 4,450 5,500 4,600 211 261 219 US : 7,750 9,650 8,800 335 417 377 Lemons : AZ : 2,400 3,800 2,800 91 144 106 CA : 20,500 21,000 20,500 779 798 779 US : 22,900 24,800 23,300 870 942 885 Tangelos : FL : 1,550 1,400 1,100 70 63 50 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90; Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Temples included in early and midseason orange varieties beginning with 2006-07 season. 5/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Hay: Stocks on Farms by State and United States, December 1 and May 1, 2004-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dec 1 : May 1 State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 1/ : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Tons : AL : 1,965 1,575 1,065 356 264 AZ : 250 350 350 35 40 AR : 3,200 2,000 2,140 660 210 CA : 1,770 1,840 1,675 215 192 CO : 2,527 2,365 2,130 470 460 CT : 73 55 65 21 9 DE : 25 18 18 5 4 FL : 410 380 380 26 60 GA : 1,345 1,350 878 292 198 ID : 2,782 2,260 2,575 535 375 IL : 1,613 1,260 1,690 460 324 IN : 1,704 1,498 1,475 345 207 IA : 4,368 4,200 3,900 1,250 1,000 KS : 6,304 5,000 4,390 1,735 800 KY : 4,742 4,390 4,550 1,186 635 LA : 910 596 690 128 81 ME : 189 138 140 39 25 MD : 348 390 452 86 74 MA : 95 76 90 17 17 MI : 1,893 1,852 2,385 500 395 MN : 4,127 4,117 4,200 884 1,150 MS : 1,159 1,567 1,186 199 210 MO : 8,101 6,315 5,415 2,166 873 MT : 4,427 5,440 4,105 860 1,463 NE : 4,370 4,585 3,632 1,440 1,070 NV : 741 788 879 80 209 NH : 53 53 60 12 8 NJ : 161 112 97 36 8 NM : 545 545 470 164 133 NY : 1,895 1,650 1,451 440 285 NC : 1,545 1,245 1,280 350 282 ND : 3,923 5,580 4,375 917 1,806 OH : 2,250 2,360 2,155 420 363 OK : 5,125 3,900 3,275 1,385 550 OR : 2,366 1,790 1,840 362 210 PA : 2,700 1,700 3,485 650 410 RI : 12 10 8 2 1 SC : 557 565 468 120 120 SD : 6,939 7,935 5,120 2,100 2,140 TN : 4,199 3,625 3,103 1,025 742 TX : 10,451 8,000 7,550 2,779 896 UT : 1,383 1,370 1,410 300 266 VT : 276 257 273 71 57 VA : 2,716 2,585 2,190 791 730 WA : 1,560 1,475 1,339 322 250 WV : 1,030 984 816 212 214 WI : 3,532 3,183 3,577 927 1,135 WY : 1,860 1,876 1,600 383 394 : US : 114,516 105,205 96,397 27,758 21,345 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2006-2007 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3,452.0 2,951.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 78,327.0 70,648.0 Corn for Silage : 6,477.0 Hay, All : 60,807.0 Alfalfa : 21,384.0 All Other : 39,423.0 Oats : 4,168.0 1,576.0 Proso Millet : 580.0 475.0 Rice : 2,838.0 2,821.0 Rye : 1,396.0 274.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 6,522.0 4,937.0 Sorghum for Silage : 347.0 Wheat, All : 57,344.0 46,810.0 Winter : 40,575.0 44,089.0 31,117.0 Durum : 1,870.0 1,815.0 Other Spring : 14,899.0 13,878.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,044.0 1,021.0 Cottonseed 3/ : Flaxseed : 813.0 767.0 Mustard Seed : 40.5 39.2 Peanuts : 1,243.0 1,209.0 Rapeseed : 1.4 1.0 Safflower : 189.0 179.0 Soybeans for Beans : 75,522.0 74,602.0 Sunflower : 1,950.0 1,770.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 15,274.0 12,731.5 Upland : 14,948.0 12,408.0 Amer-Pima : 326.0 323.5 Sugarbeets : 1,366.7 1,304.1 Sugarcane : 908.8 Tobacco : 339.0 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 46.0 22.5 Dry Edible Beans : 1,629.8 1,537.6 Dry Edible Peas : 925.5 884.1 Lentils : 429.0 407.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.3 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.1 Hops : 29.4 Peppermint Oil : 79.2 Potatoes, All : 1,134.7 1,115.5 Winter : 17.7 11.5 17.5 11.5 Spring : 70.7 67.5 Summer : 58.4 54.3 Fall : 987.9 976.2 Spearmint Oil : 18.5 Sweet Potatoes : 95.6 87.2 Taro (HI) 4/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2007 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Acreage is not estimated. 4/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2006-2007 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Units:------------------------------------------- : : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ----- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley :Bu : 61.0 180,051 Corn for Grain :" : 149.1 10,534,868 Corn for Silage :Tons : 16.2 104,849 Hay, All :" : 2.33 141,666 Alfalfa :" : 3.35 71,666 All Other :" : 1.78 70,000 Oats :Bu : 59.5 93,764 Proso Millet :" : 21.5 10,195 Rice 2/ :Cwt : 6,868 193,736 Rye :Bu : 26.3 7,193 Sorghum for Grain :" : 56.2 277,538 Sorghum for Silage :Tons : 13.4 4,642 Wheat, All :Bu : 38.7 1,812,036 Winter :" : 41.7 1,298,081 Durum :" : 29.5 53,475 Other Spring :" : 33.2 460,480 : : Oilseeds : : Canola :Lbs : 1,366 1,394,332 Cottonseed 3/ :Tons : 7,632.0 Flaxseed :Bu : 14.4 11,019 Mustard Seed :Lbs : 720 28,220 Peanuts :" : 2,874 3,474,450 Rapeseed :" : 1,100 1,100 Safflower :" : 1,069 191,405 Soybeans for Beans :Bu : 42.7 3,188,247 Sunflower :Lbs : 1,211 2,143,613 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ :Bales: 819 21,729.0 Upland 2/ :" : 811 20,973.0 Amer-Pima 2/ :" : 1,122 756.0 Sugarbeets :Tons : 25.9 33,765 Sugarcane :" : 32.4 29,489 Tobacco :Lbs : 2,144 726,724 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ :Cwt : 1,151 259 Dry Edible Beans 2/ :" : 1,577 24,247 Dry Edible Peas 2/ :" : 1,493 13,203 Lentils 2/ :" : 797 3,244 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ :" : 590 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) :Lbs : 1,160 7,300 Ginger Root (HI) :" : 43,000 4,300 Hops :" : 1,964 57,686.7 Peppermint Oil :" : 92 7,248 Potatoes, All :Cwt : 390 434,683 Winter :" : 257 250 4,495 2,875 Spring :" : 293 19,766 Summer :" : 340 18,444 Fall :" : 402 391,978 Spearmint Oil :Lbs : 110 2,038 Sweet Potatoes :Cwt : 189 16,441 Taro (HI) 3/ :Lbs : 4,500 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2007 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2005-2007 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Units :-------------------------------------------- : : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Tons : 1,018 1,232 1,570 Lemons : " : 870 942 885 Oranges : " : 9,252 8,898 8,124 Tangelos (FL) : " : 70 63 50 Tangerines : " : 335 417 377 Temples (FL) 3/ : " : 29 32 : : Noncitrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 9,864.9 9,842.7 Apricots : Tons : 81.7 44.5 Bananas (HI) : Lbs : 20,900.0 Grapes : Tons : 7,828.7 6,423.0 Olives (CA) : " : 142.0 50.0 Papayas (HI) : Lbs : 32,900.0 Peaches : Tons : 1,184.6 1,053.8 Pears : " : 825.3 835.3 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 90.0 170.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 9.1 24.0 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lbs : 915,000 1,050,000 Hazelnuts (OR) : Tons : 27.6 41.0 Pecans : Lbs : 280,200 190,400 Walnuts (CA) : Tons : 355.0 350.0 Maple Syrup : Gals : 1,242 1,449 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2007 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2006-07 season. 2/ Production years are 2004-05, 2005-06, and 2006-07. 3/ Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2006-2007 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 1,396,990 1,194,240 Corn for Grain 2/ :31,698,150 28,590,540 Corn for Silage : 2,621,180 Hay, All 3/ : 24,607,980 Alfalfa : 8,653,890 All Other : 15,954,090 Oats : 1,686,750 637,790 Proso Millet : 234,720 192,230 Rice : 1,148,510 1,141,630 Rye : 564,950 110,890 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 2,639,390 1,997,950 Sorghum for Silage : 140,430 Wheat, All 3/ :23,206,540 18,943,540 Winter :16,420,300 17,842,380 12,592,740 Durum : 756,770 734,510 Other Spring : 6,029,480 5,616,290 : Oilseeds : Canola : 422,500 413,190 Cottonseed 4/ : Flaxseed : 329,010 310,400 Mustard Seed : 16,390 15,860 Peanuts : 503,030 489,270 Rapeseed : 570 400 Safflower : 76,490 72,440 Soybeans for Beans :30,563,000 30,190,680 Sunflower : 789,150 716,300 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 6,181,240 5,152,310 Upland : 6,049,310 5,021,390 Amer-Pima : 131,930 130,920 Sugarbeets : 553,090 527,760 Sugarcane : 367,780 Tobacco : 137,170 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 18,620 9,110 Dry Edible Beans : 659,560 622,250 Dry Edible Peas : 374,540 357,790 Lentils : 173,610 164,710 Wrinkled Seed Peas 4/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,550 Ginger Root (HI) : 40 Hops : 11,880 Peppermint Oil : 32,050 Potatoes, All 3/ : 459,200 451,430 Winter : 7,160 4,650 7,080 4,650 Spring : 28,610 27,320 Summer : 23,630 21,970 Fall : 399,790 395,060 Spearmint Oil : 7,490 Sweet Potatoes : 38,690 35,290 Taro (HI) 5/ : 150 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2007 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Acreage is not estimated. 5/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2006-2007 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.28 3,920,150 Corn for Grain : 9.36 267,597,970 Corn for Silage : 36.29 95,117,410 Hay, All 2/ : 5.22 128,517,230 Alfalfa : 7.51 65,014,300 All Other : 3.98 63,502,930 Oats : 2.13 1,360,980 Proso Millet : 1.20 231,220 Rice : 7.70 8,787,720 Rye : 1.65 182,710 Sorghum for Grain : 3.53 7,049,790 Sorghum for Silage : 29.99 4,211,150 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.60 49,315,540 Winter : 2.81 35,327,980 Durum : 1.98 1,455,350 Other Spring : 2.23 12,532,210 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.53 632,460 Cottonseed 3/ : 6,923,630 Flaxseed : 0.90 279,900 Mustard Seed : 0.81 12,800 Peanuts : 3.22 1,575,980 Rapeseed : 1.23 500 Safflower : 1.20 86,820 Soybeans for Beans : 2.87 86,769,860 Sunflower : 1.36 972,330 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.92 4,730,930 Upland : 0.91 4,566,330 Amer-Pima : 1.26 164,600 Sugarbeets : 58.04 30,631,090 Sugarcane : 72.74 26,751,970 Tobacco : 2.40 329,640 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.29 11,750 Dry Edible Beans : 1.77 1,099,830 Dry Edible Peas : 1.67 598,880 Lentils : 0.89 147,150 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 26,760 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.30 3,310 Ginger Root (HI) : 48.20 1,950 Hops : 2.20 26,170 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,290 Potatoes, All 2/ : 43.68 19,716,890 Winter : 28.79 28.02 203,890 130,410 Spring : 32.82 896,570 Summer : 38.07 836,610 Fall : 45.01 17,779,820 Spearmint Oil : 0.12 920 Sweet Potatoes : 21.13 745,750 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,040 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2007 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2005-2007 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 923,510 1,117,650 1,424,280 Lemons : 789,250 854,570 802,860 Oranges : 8,393,270 8,072,130 7,369,970 Tangelos (FL) : 63,500 57,150 45,360 Tangerines : 303,910 378,300 342,010 Temples (FL) 3/ : 26,310 29,030 : Noncitrus : Apples : 4,474,640 4,464,570 Apricots : 74,070 40,370 Bananas (HI) : 9,480 Grapes : 7,102,080 5,826,850 Olives (CA) : 128,820 45,360 Papayas (HI) : 14,920 Peaches : 1,074,610 955,990 Pears : 748,720 757,780 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 81,650 154,220 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 8,260 21,770 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 415,040 476,270 Hazelnuts : 25,040 37,190 Pecans : 127,100 86,360 Walnuts (CA) : 322,050 317,510 Maple Syrup : 6,210 7,240 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2007 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2006-07 season. 2/ Production years are 2004-05, 2005-06, and 2006-07. 3/ Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season. December Weather Summary Four major winter storms left destructive paths across the central and western U.S., due to snow, ice, and wind. The month opened with a storm underway across the Nation's mid-section. As much as 6 to 18 inches of snow blanketed areas from Texas' northern panhandle into parts of Michigan, while damaging ice accumulations were most significant from east-central Missouri into central Illinois. On December 14-15, a powerful Pacific storm swept into the Northwest, causing extensive wind damage and bearing heavy rain and snow. Severe storm effects spread inland as far as the northern Rockies, where some high-elevation wind gusts topped 150 m.p.h. The year ended on an incredibly stormy note from the southern Rockies into the upper Midwest. On December 20-21, a blizzard engulfed the central High Plains and adjacent Rockies, curtailing pre-holiday travel and severely stressing livestock. Meanwhile, ice accumulations were particularly heavy in central Nebraska. Barely a week later (December 28-31), another storm dropped a swath of heavy snow from New Mexico to North Dakota, again paralyzing travel and causing unspecified livestock losses, pending further assessment. Ice accumulations from northern Texas into Minnesota triggered widespread damage and power outages. In sharp contrast, monthly precipitation totaled less than 25 percent of normal in the Desert Southwest and a small section of the northern Plains. Following an early-December spell of chilly weather, bitterly cold air receded into Canada and Alaska. Nevertheless, cold air trailing the early-month storm brought crop-threatening freezes to southern Louisiana's sugarcane-producing areas on December 5, 8, and 9. By December 8, above-normal temperatures reached the northern Plains and upper Midwest and stayed for the remainder of the month. Unusual warmth spread to the East Coast by December 10 and also persisted through month's end. As a result, monthly temperatures averaged 6 to 12 degrees F above normal in most locations from the northern Plains into the Northeast. In contrast, near-normal monthly temperatures were observed from the central and southern High Plains westward, except for readings as much as 6 degrees F below normal in some snow-covered Western valleys. One benefit of the stormy weather was a boost in moisture for the Plains' winter wheat crop. Snow provided wheat with insulation, although the early-month cold snap exposed the crop in western portions of South Dakota and Nebraska to temperatures as low as -10 degrees F. Elsewhere, persistently wet, muddy conditions were a concern for livestock and winter wheat in the eastern Corn Belt and the Northwest. Wet conditions also developed in the central Gulf Coast region, but showers provided some drought relief in the southern Atlantic States. December Agricultural Summary Temperatures averaged above normal across most of the Nation, with the exception of the Southwest, Great Basin, and interior areas of the Pacific Northwest. In the northern and central Great Plains, snow cover was lacking through most of the month, but improved in the final week as snowfall blanketed much of the region, providing some protection for winter wheat. In southern areas of the Great Plains, cold, wet weather early in the month delayed final cotton harvest. Meanwhile, heavy rain fell in the Mississippi Delta, with moderate precipitation in adjacent areas of the Southeast. In Florida, harvest of sugarcane, citrus, and vegetable crops proceeded smoothly, despite occasional showers. Temperatures twice dropped below freezing in southern Louisiana, causing some damage to unharvested sugarcane. In the Corn Belt, precipitation levels were above normal, causing flooding problems in some areas. The rainfall and above-normal temperatures prevented accumulation of snow cover, leaving winter wheat vulnerable to potentially damaging cold weather. Heavy precipitation fell along the Pacific Coast, from central California through the Pacific Northwest. Though beneficial for pastures and emerging winter wheat, the rainfall disrupted citrus harvest at times. Meanwhile, frosty mornings helped harden citrus fruits, but frost damage was reported in some areas. Winter Potatoes: Production for 2007 is forecast at 2.88 million cwt. Florida's winter potato estimates were combined with their spring potato estimates for the 2007 crop, which leaves California as the only winter potato estimating State. California production is expected to be down 8 percent from last year and 18 percent from 2005. Harvested area in California is forecast at 11,500 acres, down 4 percent from 2006, while the average yield is expected to be 250 cwt per acre, 10 cwt below last year. Growers reported an average crop, with yields below last year but similar to 2005. Concerns were raised over a killing frost that occurred after Thanksgiving, but it appeared to have little effect on the crop. Spring Potatoes: Production for 2006 is estimated at 19.8 million cwt, down 4 percent from the May forecast but 6 percent above 2005. Harvested area totaled 67,500 acres, 3 percent below the previous forecast but up 1 percent from a year ago. The average yield of 293 cwt per acre decreased 3 cwt from the May forecast but increased 12 cwt from 2005. Spring potato production in Texas increased 39 percent from 2005 and 14 percent in North Carolina. Favorable growing conditions in Texas resulted in higher yields than last year. In North Carolina, growing conditions prior to harvest were the best in recent years, increasing yields from the previous year, but substantial rain just before harvest drowned out many acres. The spring potato production in Arizona, California, and Florida all declined 1 percent from 2005. The decreases in Arizona and Florida are due to fewer acres being harvested. California growers realized a lower yield than last year due to wet spring conditions. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.22 million pounds for December, down 12 percent from November and 13 percent below a year ago. Area in crop totaled 2,350 acres, up 10 percent from last month and 3 percent above December 2005. Harvested area totaled 1,135 acres in December, down 14 percent from the previous month and 36 percent lower than last year. Conditions in orchards were generally sunny with intermittent showers and cooler temperatures. Mature trees are reported to have full fruit columns and to be flowering heavily. Young trees made good progress during the month and some had begun flowering. Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2006-07 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.57 million tons, virtually unchanged from the December 1 forecast but up 27 percent from last season's final utilization of 1.23 million tons. Florida's grapefruit production is forecast at 26.0 million boxes (1.11 million tons), unchanged from the December forecast but 35 percent above last season's hurricane-reduced final utilization of 19.3 million boxes (820,000 tons). Excluding the last two hurricane-reduced crops, this is the lowest forecasted Florida grapefruit production since the 1949-50 season's 24.2 million boxes. The all white grapefruit forecast is 9.00 million boxes (383,000 tons), unchanged from December but 38 percent above last season's final utilization. The overall quality of white grapefruit has been reported as very good. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 17.0 million boxes (723,000 tons), is unchanged from December but 33 percent above last season's final utilization. Fruit sizes are projected to be smaller than the average of the last 10 years not affected by hurricanes. Due to the high quality of the colored grapefruit crop, a large majority of the fruit harvested has been utilized for fresh market sales. California's grapefruit production forecast is 6.00 million boxes (201,000 tons), up 5 percent from the October forecast but equal to last season's final utilization. Harvest has begun with good fruit quality reported. Pummelo harvest has begun, with strong demand reported. The grapefruit production forecast for Texas is 6.50 million boxes (260,000 tons), down 3 percent from the previous forecast but up 25 percent from last season's production. Arizona's grapefruit forecast, at 100,000 boxes (3,000 tons), is unchanged from both the October forecast and the 2005-06 season's final utilization. Lemons: The forecast for the 2006-07 U.S. lemon crop, at 885,000 tons, is up 4 percent from the October 1 forecast but down 6 percent from last season. California production is forecast at 20.5 million boxes (779,000 tons), up 4 percent from the previous forecast but down 2 percent from the 2005-06 season. Good fruit quality has been reported in all growing areas. Arizona's 2006-07 lemon forecast, at 2.80 million boxes (106,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 26 percent from the previous season. Harvest is progressing well with good fruit quality reported. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast remains at 1.10 million boxes (50,000 tons), unchanged from the December 1 forecast but down 21 percent from last season's final utilized production. The row count survey conducted December 26-27 shows 42 percent of the rows have been harvested. Tangerines: The 2005-06 U.S. tangerine forecast is 377,000 tons, unchanged from the December forecast but down 10 percent from last season's final utilization of 417,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 4.60 million boxes (219,000 tons), unchanged from the December forecast but down 16 percent from last season's utilization of 5.50 million boxes. The row count survey shows 92 percent of the early variety tangerine rows have been harvested. Survey measurements for the later maturing Honey variety show offsetting increases in both fruit size and drop from December. The California tangerine forecast, at 3.80 million boxes (143,000 tons), is unchanged from October but up 6 percent from the previous season. Harvest is progressing well but growers have been monitoring groves for freeze damage. Arizona's forecast is 400,000 boxes (15,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 27 percent below last season's utilization. Florida Citrus: Florida's citrus producing regions were unseasonably warm during December. Several heavy rains and thunderstorms resulted in 2 to 3 inches of precipitation in the northern, eastern, and central citrus producing areas. Less than a quarter of an inch of rain was recorded in the southern growing area. Daytime temperatures reached the high 70s to low 80s on several days in all areas while nighttime temperatures ranged from the 40s to 60s. Gift fruit movement was very active with Sunburst tangerine and navel orange shipments peaking during mid-December and then tapering off after the Christmas holiday. Weekly fresh shipments of both navel oranges and grapefruit reached between 200,000 and 300,000 boxes for three consecutive weeks. The color and quality of tangerines and grapefruit were reported as excellent all month. Early-midseason orange processing utilization increased significantly during the month and had reached a level of 5 million boxes per week by the end of the month. Processing plants began taking field run Orlando tangelos in the third week of the month. Grove maintenance activities were winding down but included mowing, irrigation, irrigation repair, and some applications of fertilizer. All but one of the processing plants slated for operation this season have opened. The final plant should open in January. Arizona Citrus: Producers indicated citrus groves were in good to excellent condition with good fruit quality reported. Lemon and navel orange harvests were reported to be about 50 percent complete. Grapefruit and tangerine harvests have begun. Texas Citrus: Early and mid-season oranges, as well as grapefruit, were being harvested. Growers generally reported good quality and size of fruit. Cooler weather in early December was beneficial to both citrus trees and fruit. Harvest was delayed by rain at the end of September, but year-to-date shipments of oranges have surpassed last year. Grapefruit shipments are running behind last year's pace. California Citrus: Navel orange and lemon harvests were underway in Fresno County. Cooler weather enhanced orange color and toughened rinds but damage from freezes in November and December is expected to affect fruit pack-outs in some areas. Tangerine harvest ended for some growers. Owari satsuma and Clementine tangerine harvests continued. Growers treated groves to control fungus and weeds. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Stone fruit harvest is complete. Cultural practices in stone fruit orchards during December included irrigation, pruning, application of herbicides, as well as pushing of old orchards in order to replant. Pomegranate harvest continued at a slower rate. Hachiya and Fuyu persimmon varieties were harvested. Grape vineyard activities included application of fertilizer, pruning, shredding, and trellis system repair. At the beginning of the month, some table grape vineyards were covered with plastic to extend harvest for Red Globe, Autumn Royal, Calmeria, and Crimson Seedless varieties. Pruning of olive trees continued in Tulare County. Cultural activities in nut orchards included pruning, shredding, irrigation, application of herbicides, and the pushing of old orchards to replant. Hay Stocks on Farms: Stocks of all hay stored on farms totaled 96.4 million tons on December 1, 2006, down 8 percent from a year ago and the lowest since 1988. Disappearance of hay from May-December 2006 totaled 66.6 million tons, compared to 73.6 million tons for the same period a year ago. Compared to December 1, 2005, hay stocks decreased in most of the eastern Rocky Mountains, Great Plains, and Southeast States. Drier conditions prevailed in many of these States, resulting in lower hay production and increased supplemental feeding of hay. Meanwhile, stocks increased compared to last year in several States throughout the Northeast and Intermountain region as a result of favorable growing conditions that allowed farmers to get multiple cuttings of hay and provided good pasture and grazing conditions. Reliability of January 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the January 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published January 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the January 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 orange production forecast is 5.3 percent. However, if you exclude the 6 abnormal production years (4 freeze seasons and 2 hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 3.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 5.3 percent, or 3.7 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 9.1 percent, or 6.5 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 422,000 tons (373,000 tons excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 106,000 tons to 1.13 million tons (106,000 tons to 638,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The January 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times (below 5 times and above 9 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the January 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Jeff Geuder, Chief .(202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head(202) 720-2127 Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings(202) 720-5944 Todd Ballard - Wheat, Rye(202) 720-8068 Ty Kalaus - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed(202) 720-9526 Dennis Koong - Peanuts, Rice(202) 720-7688 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds(202) 720-7369 King Whetstone - Hay, Oats, Sorghum(202) 690-3234 Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops(202) 720-7621 Fruits, Vegetables & Special Crops Section Lance Honig, Head(202) 720-2127 Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco(202) 720-7235 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries(202) 720-2157 Rich Holcomb - Citrus, Tropical Fruits(202) 720-5412 Doug Marousek - Floriculture, Nursery, Tree Nuts(202) 720-4215 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas(202) 720-3250 Faye Propsom- Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes(202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops(360) 902-1940 Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes(202) 720-4285 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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Agriculture at the Crossroads: Energy, Farm & Rural Policy March 1-2, 2007 Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia The Forum will feature Secretary Mike Johanns, distinguished guest speakers, and a panel of America's leading CEOs focusing on the impact of bioenergy on agriculture. Attendees at the 83rd annual Outlook Forum will include top officials, industry analysts, business leaders, farmers and ranchers, and other experts in agriculture.  $300 if you register by Feb. 5, 2007  $350 if you register after Feb. 5, 2007 For a program preview & to register, go to: www.usda.gov/oce/forum  Topical sessions, including luncheon and dinner speakers  Networking opportunities, 1,500 expected to attend Find full program and registration details at agforum@oce.usda.gov or write to 2007 Outlook Forum, Room 4426 South Building, USDA, Washington, D.C. 20250-3812.