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USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2013. Office of the Chief Economist, U.S. Department of Agriculture. Prepared by the Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee. Staff Report WAOB-2004-1.

Abstract

This report provides long-run baseline projections for the agricultural sector through 2013. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices. The projections are based on specific assumptions regarding macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments. The baseline assumes that there are no shocks due to abnormal weather or other factors affecting global supply and demand. The 2002 Farm Act is assumed to remain in effect throughout the baseline. The baseline projections presented are one representative scenario for the agricultural sector for the next decade. As such, the baseline provides a point of departure for discussion of alternative farm sector outcomes that could result under different assumptions. The projections in this report were prepared in October through December 2003, reflecting a composite of model results and judgment-based analysis. Projections were completed prior to the diagnosis of a case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in an adult Holstein cow in Washington State in December 2003.

Improved domestic and international economic growth after the 2001 through early 2003 slowdown provides a favorable demand setting for the U.S. agricultural sector. A relatively strong U.S. dollar, despite declines from a recent peak, and trade competition are constraining factors on U.S. exports. Nonetheless, improving economic growth, particularly in developing countries, provides a foundation for gains in global consumption and trade, U.S. agricultural exports, and farm commodity prices. With domestic demand for agricultural products also increasing, market prices and cash receipts rise, which help to improve the financial condition of the U.S. agricultural sector.

Keywords: Projections, baseline, crops, livestock, trade, farm income, food prices.